摘要
利用2010—2020年省级面板数据,深入剖析农业社会化服务与耕地非粮化之间的关系,并使用中介效应和调节效应模型进行实证检验。研究发现:农业社会化服务与耕地非粮化之间存在典型的倒“U”型关系,现阶段农业社会化服务对于耕地非粮化的影响是促进非粮作物生产,且研究期内农业社会化服务未达到最优水平;农业社会化服务与规模效应之间呈显著倒“U”型关系,并通过规模效应的中介作用对耕地非粮化的影响表现为显著倒“U”型关系;技术扩散对农业社会化服务影响耕地非粮化有调节作用,会强化农业社会化服务对耕地非粮化的直接影响;在长期,主销区可能存在耕地非粮化现象,挤压粮食生产并破坏耕地质量,且农业社会化服务对耕地非粮化的影响效果由东部向西部地区增强,呈现明显的空间异质性。基于此,要进一步提高农业社会化服务水平,严格警惕耕地非粮化现象,全面提高粮食综合生产能力,保障国家粮食安全。
This paper uses provincial panel data from 2010-2020 to provide insight into the relationship between agricultural social services and the decropping of arable land,and conducts empirical tests using mediating and moderating effect models.It is found that there is a typical inverted U-shaped relationship between agricultural social services and non-food production on cropland,and the impact of agricultural social services on non-food production on cropland at this stage is to promote non-food crop production,and agricultural social services have not reached the optimal level during the study period.There is a significant inverse“U”relationship between agricultural socialization services and scale effect,and the impact of agricultural socialization services on the non-food production of farmland through the intermediary of scale effect shows a significant inverse“U”relationship;technology diffusion has a moderating effect on the impact of agricultural socialization services on the non-food production of farmland.In the long term,the phenomenon of arable land dehomogenization may exist in the main marketing areas,squeezing food production and destroying arable land quality,and the effect of agricultural social services on arable land dehomogenization increases from the east to the west,showing obvious spatial heterogeneity.Based on this,it is proposed to further improve the level of agricultural socialization services,strictly guard against the phenomenon of arable land dehomogenization,comprehensively improve the comprehensive food production capacity,and guarantee national food security.
作者
陈中伟
汤灿
CHEN Zhong-wei;TANG Can(Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,School of Economics,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第3期115-128,共14页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition
基金
2023年度河南省高校哲学社会科学应用研究重大项目“‘航空+数字’赋能河南省农业绿色发展的机理与路径研究”(2023-YYZD-26)
2023年河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学)项目(232400411161)。
关键词
社会化服务
非粮化
粮食安全
规模效应
技术扩散
socialization services
non-foodization
food security
scale effect
technology diffusion
