摘要
农业社会化服务是转变农业发展方式、提高农业效率的基本路径,也是近年农地种植结构调整及其“趋粮化”的重要诱因。本文以2010—2019年中国31个省市自治区为样本,探究农业社会化服务与农地“趋粮化”之间的作用机制、以及不同粮食产销区之间的差异。在运用熵值法测算农业社会化服务的基础上,结合固定效应回归模型与面板门槛回归模型,探究了农业社会化服务对农地“趋粮化”的影响。结果表明:(1)农业社会化服务对农地“趋粮化”具有正向影响,且存在以农业社会化服务为门槛变量的单一门槛值,两者之间的正向关系在跨过门槛值之后有所减弱。(2)分区域来看,第一,粮食主产区的农业社会化服务对于农地“趋粮化”的影响存在单一门槛值,跨过门槛值时,对农地“趋粮化”影响由负向影响转为正向影响;第二,粮食产销平衡区不存在单一门槛值;第三,粮食主销区的农业社会化服务对农地“趋粮化”影响存在单一门槛值,两者之间的负向关系在跨过门槛值后有显著的改善。因此,在推进农业社会化服务发展中应实行差异化的对策,在低门槛值的粮食产销平衡区,促进粮食产销平衡区农业社会化服务发展推广;在无门槛值且经济较为发达的粮食主销区,加大对农业社会化服务发展的资金与政策支持力度;在高门槛值的粮食主产区,推动农业社会化服务高质量发展。
Agricultural socialized service is the basic path to change agricultural development mode and improve agricultural efficiency,and is also an important inducement for the adjustment of farmland planting structure and its“grain orientation”in recent years.This paper takes 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2010 to 2019 as samples to explore the mechanism of action between agricultural socialization services and the“grain-trending”of agricultural land,as well as the differences between different grain production and sales areas.Based on the calculation of agricultural socialized services by entropy method,combined with fixed effect regression model and panel threshold regression model,this paper explores the impact of agricultural socialized services on the“grain trend”of agricultural land.The results showed that:(1)Socialization of agricultural services had a positive impact on the“grain orientation”of farmland,and there was a single threshold value with socialization of agricultural services as the threshold variable,and the positive relationship between them weakened after crossing the threshold value.(2)From a regional perspective,firstly,there is a single threshold value for the impact of agricultural socialization services in major grain-producing areas on grain orientation,and when the threshold value is crossed,the impact on grain orientation changes from negative to positive.Second,there is no single threshold value in the grain production and marketing balance zone.Third,there is a single threshold value for the impact of agricultural socialization services in grain main marketing areas on the“grain orientation”of farmland,and the negative relationship between the two is significantly improved after crossing the threshold value.Therefore,in promoting the development of socialized agricultural services,we should implement differentiated countermeasures:(1)Promote the development and popularization of agricultural socialized service in the grain production an
作者
杨阳
李治
韩小爽
YANG Yang;LI Zhi;HAN Xiaoshuang(Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,Henan;School of Economics and Trade,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,Henan)
出处
《管理学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期44-54,共11页
Journal of Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL001)。
关键词
农业社会化服务
趋粮化
面板门槛模型
agricultural socialization service
hasten food
panel threshold model
