摘要
人工智能技术应用的不断拓展与深化,使其对职业的替代效应备受各界关注。目前,针对人工智能职业替代效应及其区域比较的研究较少且分析结果存在较大差异,需要基于人工智能实际应用状况对其进行更为客观合理的评估。本文将美国O*NET职业体系与《中国职业大典》进行匹配,利用O*NET各职业的技能特征评级和IFR年度工业机器人安装量数据,运用LASSO回归、随机森林分类器等方法,提取影响人工智能职业替代效应的关键职业技能特征变量,测算我国职业大典中各小类、中类和大类职业的人工智能技术替代率,并进行了稳定性检验,研究发现我国七个大类职业的平均职业替代风险为63.23%,职业替代风险整体较高。进一步地,本文结合2020年中国人口普查数据,测算我国31个省市在中类职业层面处于高替代风险的劳动力规模,检验了地区产业结构、人口规模、性别比对人工智能职业替代效应的影响。本文的测算结果能够为动态应对人工智能技术带来的技术性失业问题及其对劳动力市场的冲击提供可靠的基础信息支持,为各地政府因地制宜制定人工智能发展政策,稳定就业提供参考。
The continuous expansion and deepening of artificial intelligence technology applications have brought much attention to its substitution effect on occupations.At present,there are few studies on the effect of artificial intelligence occupational substitution and its regional comparisons,and the analysis results vary greatly,so a more objective and reasonable assessment of artificial intelligence based on its actual application is needed.In this paper,we match the U.S.O*NET occupational system with the Chinese Occupational Dictionary,use the skill characteristic ratings of O*NET occupations and IFR annual industrial robot installation data,use LASSO regression and Random Forest Classifier to extract the key occupational skill characteristic variables that affect the artificial intelligence occupational substitution effect,measure the occupations of each small,medium and large category in Chinese Occupational Dictionary Artificial intelligence technology substitution rate,and stability test was conducted,and the study found that the average occupational substitution risk of seven major categories of occupations in China was 63.23%,and the overall occupational substitution risk was high.Further,this paper combines data from the 2020 China Census to measure the size of the labor force at high risk of substitution at the medium category occupation level in 31l provinces and cities in China,and examines the effects of regional industrial structure,population size,and gender ratio on the substitution effect of artificial intelligence occupations.The measurement results of this paper can provide reliable basic information support for dynamic response to the technical unemployment problem brought by artificial intelligence technology and its impact on the labor market,and provide reference for local governments to formulate artificial intelligence development policies and stabilize employment according to local conditions.
作者
汪昕宇
张冰冰
姚寅
何勤
Xinyu WANG;Bingbing ZHANG;Yin YAO;Qin HE(Institute of Human Resource Management,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100023;School of Management,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070)
出处
《中国人力资源开发》
北大核心
2023年第7期117-135,共19页
Human Resources Development of China
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(19AGL025)
国家社科基金项目(22BRK002)
国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA150)
北京联合大学重点科研项目资助(SKZD202303)。
关键词
人工智能
职业技能特征
职业替代率
区域比较
Artificial Intelligence
Occupational Skills Characteristics
Occupational Substitution Rate
Regional Comparison
