摘要
全面脱贫后,防止返贫将成为我国下一阶段扶贫工作关注的重点。而农民合作社作为解决农村贫困的有效工具,科学评估其能否降低农村家庭未来陷入贫困的概率,从而有效阻断贫困至关重要。本文基于中国劳动力动态调查数据库(CLDS)三期微观面板数据,采用倾向得分匹配双重差分(PSM-DID)及三重差分(DDD)的方法检验加入农民合作社对农村家庭贫困脆弱性的影响,以期测度其在未来阻断农村家庭贫困的效果。研究结果表明,加入农民合作社能够显著降低农村家庭的贫困脆弱性,进而有效阻断贫困;并且户主受教育时间越长以及农村距离市场越近,农民合作社降低农户家庭贫困脆弱性的效应越大。此外,不同类型的合作社以及不同地区的合作社影响家庭贫困脆弱性的效应也具有异质性。进一步的机制检验表明,农民合作社通过增加农户收入、增加农户对社会的信任度以及提供隐性担保等方式来降低家庭的贫困脆弱性,从而能够有效降低家庭在未来陷入贫困的概率。
After the poverty alleviation is completed,preventing the return to poverty will become the focus of our country's next phase of poverty alleviation work.As an effective tool for solving rural poverty,farmer cooperatives are critical to scientifically assessing whether they can reduce the probability of rural families falling into poverty in the future,thereby effectively stop falling into poverty.Based on the three-phase micro-panel data of the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey Database(CLDS),this paper uses propensity score matching double difference(PSM-DID) and triple difference(DDD) methods to test the impact of joining a farmer cooperative on the poverty vulnerability of rural households.It will prevent rural families from falling into poverty in the future.The research results show that joining a farmer cooperative can significantly reduce the poverty vulnerability of rural households,thereby effectively preventing the occurrence of poverty;and the longer the household head's education and the closer the village is to the market,the greater the effect of farmer cooperatives in reducing the poverty vulnerability of rural households.In addition,the effects of different types of cooperatives and cooperatives in different regions on household poverty vulnerability are also heterogeneous.A further mechanism test shows that farmers' cooperatives can reduce the poverty vulnerability of families by increasing farmers' income,increasing farmers' trust in society,and providing implicit guarantees,which can effectively reduce the probability of families falling into poverty in the future.
作者
郭露
刘梨进
GUO Lu;LIU Lijin
出处
《农业技术经济》
北大核心
2023年第6期129-144,共16页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目“基于多维贫困指数优化的相对贫困测度及治理研究”(编号:20BTJ018),国家社科基金重大项目“后扶贫时代中国城乡相对贫困统计测度与治理机制研究”(编号:20ZD131)
教育部人文社科研究规划项目“区域协作效率提升视阈下的技术溢出‘反噬效应’与产业结构优化研究”(编号:21YJA630009)。
