摘要
文章基于人口红利转变的视角,利用中国省际面板数据实证分析数字经济对劳动生产率收敛的影响。研究发现:(1)在研究时段内,数字经济总体上并未引发生产率悖论问题,不仅加速了劳动生产率的增长,而且促进了劳动生产率的收敛。(2)数字经济赋能劳动生产率收敛的强化效应主要源自产业数字化及其对服务业劳动生产率的影响。(3)从劳动力就业的角度来看,数字经济产生的就业创造效应和就业替代效应可以通过优化劳动力就业结构促进劳动生产率的收敛。(4)伴随人口红利的转变,数字经济对劳动生产率收敛的影响存在显著的单门槛效应,当人口红利水平越过门槛值后,数字经济赋能劳动生产率收敛的强化作用呈现出明显的边际递增特征,即数字经济发展可以消解人口红利衰减对劳动生产率收敛的潜在冲击。文章认为,在人口红利转变的现实背景下,数字经济发展在抬高劳动生产率收敛水平的同时,也能促使区域劳动生产率加速向自身平衡增长路径上靠拢,从而有利于推动区域实现高质量协调发展。
Viewing from the perspective of demographic dividend transformation,this paper analyzes the impact of digital economy on labor productivity convergence using China's inter-provincial panel data.We find that:(1)The development of digital economy in the study period accelerates the growth of labor productivity and promotes its convergence.(2)The strengthening effect of digital economy on labor productivity convergence is driven mainly by industrial digitalization and its influence on labor productivity in service industry.(3)In terms of its implication on labor employment,digital economy has both employment creation effect and employment substitution effect,which work together to optimize labor employment structure and promote regional labor productivity convergence.(4)Along with the demographic dividend declining,the digital economy shows a significant single threshold effect on labor productivity convergence.Once the threshold is passed,the strengthening effect of digital economy in enabling labor productivity convergence increases marginally,which indicates that the development of digital economy can eliminate the potential negative impact of declining demographic dividend on the labor productivity convergence.The paper concludes that,in view of the declining demographic dividend,the digital economy development is promising to accelerate labor productivity convergence and push regional labor productivity towards its balanced growth path.And this will help to promote a coordinated high-quality interregional development.
作者
杨昕
赵守国
Yang Xin;Zhao Shouguo
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期3-18,共16页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“资本错配对中国制造业企业行为的扭曲效应”(项目批准号:20YJC790029)
陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目“秦创原创新驱动平台组织模式创新与动能激发研究”(项目批准号:2021ZD1003)的阶段性成果。
关键词
数字经济
劳动生产率
收敛效应
人口红利
劳动力就业
Digital Economy
Labor Productivity
Convergence Effect
Demographic Dividend
Employment
