摘要
1951—2020年广西冬季低温事件发生频次年际、年代际变化特征较明显,20世纪60年代初经历了一次由少变多的明显突变,80年代中期经历了一次由多变少的转变。低温频次较多的时期出现在20世纪60年代中期至80年代末,90年代至21世纪初转为偏少,但21世纪00年代之后出现了频次异常多的极端年份(如2008年和2011年),使得低温事件发生频次整体呈一定程度的上升趋势。广西低温频次具有2~5 a的年际变化周期和10 a左右的年代际周期,1990年前,低温频次的变化由上述两个主要周期叠加产生,之后周期信号减弱,直至2005年后,2~5 a周期再次出现。广西冬季低温频次变化与东亚季风和大西洋海温的分析表明,东亚冬季风的偏强有利于广西低温频次增多;欧洲以西大西洋表面海温的异常偏低,通过海气相互作用带来的环流异常是导致广西气温显著偏低、低温发生频次异常增加的可能原因。
The frequency of winter low-temperature events in Guangxi has obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics from 1951 to 2020.In the early 1960s,it experiences an obvious mutation from less to more,and in the mid-1980s,it experiences a change from more to less.The period with a high frequency of low-temperature occurs from the middle of 1960s to the end of 1980s,and become less from the 1990s to the beginning of the 21st century.However,there are extreme years with unusually high frequency(such as 2008 and 2011)after the 2000s,which makes the frequency of low-temperature events show an upward trend.The frequency of low temperature in Guangxi has an interannual variation cycle of 2-5 years and an interdecadal cycle of about 10 years.Before 1990,the variation of low-temperature frequency is caused by the superposition of the above two main cycles,and then the signal of the cycle weakens,until 2005,the 2-5 years of the cycle appears again.The analysis results of the variation of winter low-temperature frequency in Guangxi and the East Asian monsoon and the Atlantic sea surface temperature show that the strong East Asian winter monsoon is conducive to the increase of low-temperature frequency in Guangxi.The Atlantic sea surface temperature in the west of Europe is abnormally low,and the circulation anomaly caused by the interaction of air and sea is the possible reason for the significant low temperature and the abnormal increase of low-temperature frequency in Guangxi.
作者
周秀华
唐熠
陆虹
韩冰
ZHOU Xiu-hua;TANG Yi;LU Hong;HAN Bing(Guangxi Climate Center,Nanning 530022,China;Guilin Meteorological Service,Guilin 541001,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2023年第2期71-76,共6页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42065004)
广西自然科学基金项目(2020JJA150011)
广西气象局气象科研计划项目(桂气科2022M17、桂气科2020M07)共同资助。
关键词
年际变化
年代际变化
东亚冬季风
海温异常
Interannual variation
Interdecadal variation
East Asian winter monsoon
Sea surface temperature anomaly
