摘要
对华东地区1960—2013年的极端气候指数进行统计分析。结果表明,多数极端气温指数都具有南北向梯度分布特点,且沿海地区出现极值的概率较大,长江三角洲流域附近也是极值的多发区,极值的发生概率与极值数值并没有直接关系。除了代表冷指数的CSDI、FD、ID、TN10p以及TX10p在1960—2013年呈逐渐减少趋势外,其他极端气候指数均明显增长,TXx和TNx在江苏省南部和浙江省沿海的部分地区上升趋势最为明显。TNn、TXn上升率高于TNx、TXx,其振幅明显大于TNx、TXx,月最高最低气温差具有减小的趋势。冷指数中的TX10p和TN10p都呈下降趋势,暖指数在四季均表现为增温趋势,各季节的程度有所不同,TN90p的增温尤为显著,最高出现在夏季。暖指数1990—2013年的峰值变化与1960—1989年的变化相反,1990—2013年峰值出现概率逐年减小,但其他值的概率增加。
The extreme climate indices in east China area from 1960 to 2013 were analyzed statistically.The results showed that most extreme temperature indexes had the characteristics of north-south gradient distribution,and the probability of extreme values in coastal areas was high.The Yangtze river delta basin was also a frequent area of extreme values,and the occurrence probability of extreme values had no direct relationship with the value of extreme values.Except that CSDI,FD,ID,TN10 p and TX10 p,which represent the cold index,gradually decreased from 1960 to 2013,other extreme climate indexes increased significantly.TXx and TNx showed the most significant upward trend in southern Jiangsu province and some coastal areas of Zhejiang province.The rising rates of TNn and TXn were higher than those of TNx and TXx,and their amplitudes were also significantly higher than those of TNX and TXx.TX10 p and TN10 p in the cold index were in a downward trend,while the warm index showed a warming trend in the four seasons,with different degrees in each season.The warming of TN90 p was particularly significant,and the highest appeared in summer.The change of the peak value of the warm index in 1990—2013 was opposite to that in 1960—1989.The probability of the peak value in 1990—2013 decreased year by year,but the probability of other values increased.
作者
吴晶璐
吴建秋
黄文彦
姚丽娜
雷正翠
WU Jing-lu;WU Jian-qiu;HUANG Wen-yan;YAO Li-na;LEI Zheng-cui(Changzhou Meteorological Bureau,Changzhou 213022,Jiangsu,China;College of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2021年第S01期96-100,114,共6页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
常州市气象局科研开发项目(1901,2101)
中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2019-043)
江苏省气象局科研基金面上项目(KM201704)
关键词
极端气候
华东地区
变化趋势
MK检验
极端气温
extreme climate
east China area
change trend
MK test
extreme temperature
