摘要
作为年际气候变化中的最强信号,ENSO现象很早以来就备受关注。ENSO不仅是造成全球气候异常的一个重要原因,也是导致亚洲季风异常和我国旱涝发生的关键因素。回顾了近30年国内外ENSO研究的最新进展,并重点从ENSO动力学理论、ENSO预测方法、ENSO的年代际变化特征、ENSO的分类、ENSO的指标、ENSO的气候影响和ENSO的业务现状等七个部分进行了回顾和总结,尤其对最近几年关于不同分布型ENSO事件的研究进展做了比较详细的归纳总结。此外,文章还讨论了在ENSO不同分布型的监测指标设定及气候影响等方面需要进一步深入研究的问题。
As the strongest signal of the interannual climate variability, the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has attracted great attention. ENSO not only plays an important role in the droughts and floods over China, and in the anomaly of Asian monsoon, but also exerts a great impact on the global climate anomalies. The paper provides a review of ENSO research in the past 30 years, mainly in the following seven aspects: ENSO dynamical theory, ENSO prediction methods, interdecadal variations of ENSO, classification of ENSO type, monitoring indices of ENSO, the possible climate impacts by ENSO and the status of current ENSO operations. Recent studies of different distribution types of ENSO have also been summarized in great detail. Moreover, the paper discussed potential further studies in several topics, such as the monitoring indices of different distribution types of ENSO and their climate impacts.
出处
《气象科技进展》
2012年第3期17-24,共8页
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
2008年国家标准项目"厄尔尼诺
拉尼娜事件定义"
国家自然科学基金(41005038)
公益性行业专项(GYHY20090601)
