摘要
提出了一种考虑天气因素的威布尔比例故障率模型(WPHM),采用威布尔分布的基准故障率函数,构建能够反映动车组外部运行环境的天气因素协变量,建立牵引传动系统的部件WPHM,利用遗传算法进行模型参数估计,依据所估计参数得出正常天气状态和恶劣天气状态下各部件的故障率和可靠度。实例研究表明,当牵引传动系统各部件均处于耗损失效期,部件均不同程度受天气因素影响,其中影响程度较大的部件有M2S车牵引电机及冷却风机,TP车主断路器,TPB车主断路器,MH车牵引电机及冷却风机等;不同天气状态下系统各部件的故障率和可靠度随服役时间推移均有明显变化,尤其恶劣天气状态下部件故障率更高,可靠度更低。因此,模型能有效地度量天气因素对部件可靠性的影响,为运用维修决策提供理论依据。
A Weibull proportional hazards model(WPHM)considering weather factors is proposed,using the baseline hazards rate function with Weibull distribution,by constructing weather factor covariates reflecting the external operating environment of electric multiple units,establishing the WPHM of traction drive system components,estimating the model parameters using genetic algorithm,and deriving the hazards rate and reliability of each component under normal weather conditions and severe weather conditions based on the estimated parameters.A case study shows that the components of the traction drive system are in the wear and tear period,and the components are affected by weather factors to varying degrees,among which the components with greater impact are the traction motor and cooling fan of M2S car,the main circuit breaker of TP car,the main circuit breaker of TPB car,the traction motor and cooling fan of MH car,etc.The hazards rate and reliability of system components in different weather conditions change significantly with service time,and the hazards rate of components in severe weather conditions in higher and reliability is lower.Therefore,the model can effectively measure the influence of weather factors on the reliability of the components and provide a theoretical basis for applying maintenance decisions.
作者
赵志龙
齐金平
刘一鸣
燕大强
ZHAO Zhilong;QI Jinping;LIU Yiming;YAN Daqiang(Mechatronics T&R Institute,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Center for Informatization of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou 730070,China;China Railway Lanzhou Group Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《实验室研究与探索》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第2期21-25,共5页
Research and Exploration In Laboratory
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71861021)
甘肃省重点研发项目(17YF1FA122)
甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2018A-026,2018C-10)
铁路总公司科研计划课题(2015T002-D)。
关键词
牵引传动系统
威布尔比例故障率模型
天气因素
可靠性分析
动车组
traction drive system
Weibull proportional hazards model
weather factor
reliability analysis
electric multiple units
