摘要
基于ARIMA‐BP神经网络模型并在碳达峰目标下预测国家生态文明试验区的碳强度;同时,运用非径向方向距离函数、共同前沿理论及共同前沿非径向曼奎斯特二氧化碳排放效率指数(MNMCPI)对减排潜力进行深入探讨。研究发现:①由ARIMA‐BP神经网络模型所得碳强度预测序列均方误差(MSE)为0.005,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为1.95%,显示了较高的精度;国家生态文明试验区碳强度2028年相较于2005年下降67.5%,提前实现国家2030年碳强度比2005年下降65%以上的目标,其中:贵州碳强度下降幅度最大,2030年相较2005年下降77.5%,福建、江西、海南下降幅度均在65%以上。②国家生态文明试验区减排潜力呈波动下滑趋势,2016-2030年均减排空间达26.59%,约21649.33万吨CO_(2)。到2030减排潜力达21.9%,为2016-2030年最低值,由于减排潜力与碳排放效率负相关,碳排放效率越高则减排潜力越小,这意味着国家生态文明试验区碳排放效率得到优化。③通过探究CO_(2)排放效率变化,间接分析区域内减排潜力变化动因,发现在MNMCPI分析框架下,区域内MNMCPI均值为1.008,年均增幅0.8%,技术效率变化、最佳实践距离变化和技术差距比率变化均值为1.0031、1.0103、1.0007,年均增幅分别为0.31%、1.03%、0.07%,国家生态文明试验区内潜在最优减排技术不断趋近于全国最优减排技术,促使碳强度快速下降。
Based on ARIMA-BP neural network model predicted the carbon intensity of national ecological civilization pilot zone under the target of carbon peak,and the non-radial directional distance function,mate-frontier theory and Meta-frontier non-radial Malmquist CO_(2)emission performance index(MNMCPI)were used to discuss the potential of emission reduction.The research conclusions are as follows.Firstly,the MSE(mean square error)of the carbon intensity prediction series from the ARIMA-BP neural network model is 0.005 and the MAPE(mean absolute percentage error)is 1.95%,showing a high accuracy.Compared with the carbon emission intensity in 2005,the carbon emission intensity of the region will be decreased by 67.5%in 2028.This result shows that the goal of reducing carbon intensity by more than 65%in 2030 compared with 2005 will be achieved ahead of schedule.Among them,Guizhou has the largest decrease in carbon intensity,with an 77.5%decrease,while Fujian,Jiangxi and Hainan all have a decrease of more than 65%.Secondly,the trend chart of the emission reduction potential of the zone has generally declined in fluctuation,and the average annual emission reduction space from 2016 to 2030 can reach 26.59%,approximately 216.4933 million tons of CO_(2).By 2030,the emission reduction potential will reach 21.9%,the lowest value between 2016 and 2030.Since the emission reduction potential is negatively related to the carbon emission efficiency,the higher the carbon emission efficiency,the smaller the emission reduction potential,which means that the carbon emission efficiency of the zone has been optimized.Thirdly,by exploring the change in CO_(2)emission efficiency,and indirectly analyzing the change causes of regional emission reduction potential,under the MNMCPI analysis,the average value of MNMCPI in the region is 1.008,with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%.The average value of changes in technical efficiency,best practice gap and technology gap ratio is 1.0031,1.0103 and 1.0007,with an average annual growth rate of 0.3
作者
胡剑波
李潇潇
蔡雯欣
Hu Jianbo;Li Xiaoxiao;Cai Wenxin(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期109-120,共12页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点课题“‘碳达峰’背景下贵州工业碳排放强度及影响因素研究”(21GZZD58)。
关键词
碳达峰
国家生态文明试验区
碳强度
预测
减排潜力
carbon peak
national ecological civilization pilot zone
carbon intensity
forecast
carbon reduction potential
