摘要
中国钢铁工业对进口铁矿石需求巨大且不掌握进口铁矿石的定价权,铁矿石供应存在较高风险。由于影响进口铁矿石价格因素众多且相互关联,目前关于进口铁矿石现货价格波动成因尚缺少权威性的研究成果。在现有进口铁矿石价格研究基础上,选取铁矿石供需、运输成本、定价模式、金融、经济发展等因素作为铁矿石价格影响因素,确定了各因素的相关代表性指标。通过构建Lasso回归模型,明确了进口铁矿石现货价格主要影响因素及这些因素之间的复杂交互关系,并通过方差分解方法识别各个影响因素的影响程度。结果显示,铁矿石普氏价格指数、海运指数、美元指数、国内铁矿石产量是影响进口铁矿石现货价格的主要因素,其中铁矿石普氏价格指数是最为关键的影响因素。基于模型结果,从加强铁矿石市场监管、优化铁矿石运输成本等角度提出了相应的政策建议。
China's steel industry has a huge demand for imported iron ore and does not have the pricing power for imported iron ore,so there is a high risk in the supply of iron ore.Since there are many factors affecting the price of imported iron ore and they are interrelated,there is still a lack of authoritative research results on the causes of fluctuations in the spot price of imported iron ore.Based on the existing research on the price of imported iron ore,factors such as iron ore supply and demand,transportation costs,pricing models,finance,and economic development were selected as factors affecting the price of iron ore,and determines the relevant representative indicators of each factor.By constructing a Lasso regression model,the main influencing factors of the spot price of imported iron ore and the complex interactive relationship between these factors are clarified,and the influence of each influencing factor is identified by the variance decomposition method.The results show that the Platts iron ore price index,shipping index,US dollar index,and domestic iron ore production are the main factors affecting the spot price of imported iron ore,among which the Platts iron ore price index is the most critical factor.Based on the model results,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the perspectives of strengthening iron ore market supervision and optimizing iron ore transportation costs.
作者
李林泰
崔巍
Li Lintai;Cui Wei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第8期36-45,共10页
Journal of Technology Economics
