摘要
为探究当今环境下径流序列的非一致性特征,更好地预判洪水事件的发生,以海河流域的滹沱河为例,采用GAMLSS模型,以时间、水库指标和气候指标为协变量,对滹沱河1970~2012年间的径流序列进行非一致性频率分析。结果表明,滹沱河的径流序列存在明显的非一致性特征,表现出趋势性和突变性;GAMLSS模型对变化环境下径流模拟具有良好的效果,可充分捕捉气候变化对洪水的影响,优于传统的一致性模型;大尺度气候指标NINO1+2和NAO的变化显著影响滹沱河的洪水事件,该两项气候指标值增高时带来低洪水风险,降低时带来高洪水风险。
In order to investigate the non-stationary characteristics of runoff series in changing environments and to better predict the occurrence of flood events, taking Hutuo River in the Haihe River Basin as the research object, GAMLSS model was used to conduct a non-coherent frequency analysis of the runoff series during 1970 and 2012 by taking time, reservoir indicators and climate indicators as covariates. The results show that the runoff series of Hutuo River has obvious non-stationary characteristics with trend and abrupt changes. The GAMLSS model can better simulate the runoff series in changing environments and describe the flood regimes under the influence of climate change, thus outperforming the traditional model. Changes of the large-scale climate indicators NINO1+2 and NAO significantly affect the flood events in the Hutuo River, with increasing values of these two climate indicators indicating low flood risk and decreasing values indicating high flood risk.
作者
李永建
郝文龙
朱长军
曹青
LI Yong-jian;HAO Wen-long;ZHU Chang-jun;CAO Qing(College of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrological Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Engineering,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2023年第3期14-18,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
河北省自然科学基金项目(E2020402057)
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2020491111,2020491211)。
