摘要
针对单变量干旱特征分析不能很好地表征干旱事件特征的局限性,论文以淮河上游息县以上流域为研究区,利用42个雨量站1976-2016年逐日降水资料计算气象干旱指数SPI,采用游程理论提取干旱历时、烈度以及烈度峰值三个干旱特征变量,并基于4种对称阿基米德Copula函数构建它们的二维和三维联合分布模型,用于推求其组合重现期。结果表明:三参数伽马分布拟合干旱历时的边缘分布最优,而三参数韦伯分布则拟合干旱烈度以及烈度峰值的边缘分布最优;Frank Copula函数拟合二维和三维干旱特征变量的联合分布最优,由此推求得到组合重现期中联合重现期可作为同频率条件下单变量重现期的下限,同现重现期可作为单变量重现期的上限。研究成果可为淮河流域的防旱减灾和其他流域干旱特征分析提供参考。
Considering the limitation that univariate drought characteristics analysis cannot fully describe the nature of drought events,this paper takes Xixian watershed in the upper reaches of Huaihe River as the study area.The meteorological drought index SPI is calculated by using the daily precipitation data of 42 rainfall stations from 1976 to 2016.The three drought characteristic variables of drought duration,drought intensity and drought intensity peak are extracted by run theory,and their two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distributions are constructed based on four types of symmetric Archimedean Copula functions to deduce the combined return period.The results show that three-parameter gamma distribution fit the marginal distribution of drought duration best,while on the marginal distribution of drought intensity and drought peak intensity,three-parameter weibull distribution fit best.The Frank Copula function is best fitting for the joint distributions of two-dimensional and three-dimensional drought characteristic variables.It is estimated that in the combined return period,the joint return period can be the lower limit of the univariate return period under the same frequency and the co-occurrence return period can be the upper limit.The results can provide a reference for the drought prevention and disaster reduction in Huaihe River Basin and for the analysis of drought characteristics in other basins.
作者
顾佳帅
李琼芳
牛铭媛
陈启慧
和鹏飞
周正模
曾天山
杜尧
宋耘
韩幸烨
GU Jia-shuai;LI Qiong-fang;NIU Ming-yuan;CHEN Qi-hui;HE Peng-fei;ZHOU Zheng-mo;ZENG Tian-shan;DU Yao;SONG Yun;HAN Xing-ye(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Qingdao Hongrui Electric Power Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao 266100,Shandong Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2019年第8期83-87,92,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金(51879069)
关键词
淮河上游
气象干旱
COPULA函数
干旱特征变量
重现期
upper reaches of Huaihe River
meteorological drought
copula function
drought characteristic variables
return period
