摘要
洪水是我国主要的自然灾害之一,城市洪水更是影响一个地区政治经济的重要因素.目前,城市上游水库调节工程和城市河道整治工程是用来调蓄城市洪水的主要工程手段,但它改变了洪水的下垫面条件,再加上气候变化的加剧,洪水的物理形成和演变机制发生了变化,从而影响了河道的防洪能力.结合非一致性水文频率计算的原理和跳跃分析方法,推求宣恩城区变化环境下的洪水频率分布,进而结合水位流量关系对其防洪能力进行分析.结果发现:雨量序列发生了跳跃向下的中变异,说明气候变化影响下降雨呈减少趋势,年最大日流量序列发生了跳跃向下的中变异,其洪峰流量呈减少趋势,且受气候变化和人类活动双重影响;考虑安全超高0.5m,宣恩站防洪能力不到10年一遇,与过去相比有明显提高,但仍达不到防洪规划20年一遇的要求,为此需将设防高程提高到499.29m以上.宣恩城区河道受到整治工程的影响较大,其防洪预警预案需要适应环境变化进行调整.
Flood is one of the major disasters in China; while urban flood is the important factor that affect a district in politics and economy. River training works and upstream reservoir regulation are used to con- trol flood in city, which protect people against flood disasters, change the relationship of river channel and subject it to climate change, leading to the variations of the formation and the law of urban flood, and af- fects the river flood control ability. In this study, inconsistent hydrological frequency analysis theory under changing environment and jump analysis method were used to calculate the flood frequency distribution of Xuan‘en county under changing environments; and the flood control ability of Xuan＇ en station in Zhongjian river was analyzed according to the stage-discharge relation curve of it. The results show that： （1） Average annual maximum monthly rainfall series jumped downward a moderate variation, which indicated that rainfall was decreasing under the changing environment. Annual maximum daily flow series jumped a downward moderate variation, which indicated that flow was decreasing, affected by the influ- ence of climate change and human activities. （2） Consideration of the 0.5 m safe superetevation, the flood control ability of Xuan＇en station was less than 10 a at present, which has been of a markedly higher ability than before, but still was not meet the requirements of 20 a flood control planning; and fortification elevation should be raised above 499.29 m. （3） Xuan＇en urban river was strongly affected by the river training works; thereby the flood warning plan needs to adapt to the changing environment.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第3期329-334,共6页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:91547205
51579181
51179131
51190094)
关键词
变化环境
跳跃变异
频率分析
防洪能力
宣恩站
changing environment
jump variation
frequency analysis
flood control ability
Xuan＇en station
