摘要
本文构建了包含多阶段生产和内生移民决策的价值链空间均衡模型,对中国价值链分工进行福利评估和空间解构。反事实显示:2002-2012年中国贸易成本的变动在多阶段生产呈放大福利变动区间的趋势特征和链条延伸偏向中西部的区域特征,使中国整体福利提升2.71%,且这主要是由境内贸易成本变动引起。解构空间路径表明,国内价值链在价值链双循环中起主导作用,东部在联结国内价值链循环中扮演关键角色;当分别关闭国内和全球价值链循环时,省区整体上未出现自我封闭的本地化趋势。此外,国内价值链在很大程度上抵御了外部冲击对国内福利造成的不利影响,未来仍可通过内部改革提升国内价值链分工水平和效益。由于多阶段生产能更充分地利用地区比较优势,因贸易成本变动引致的移民互动机制在多阶段生产的影响小于迂回生产。
This paper first constructs a value chain spatial-equilibrium model from the interaction of multi-stage production and labour mobility to quantitatively analyse the welfare effect and spatial distribution of China’s provinces participating in the value chain. The counterfactual results show the following.(1) Changes in China’s trade cost from 2002-2012 display trending characteristics of widening the welfare change interval and the regional characteristics, from which the chain benefits are skewed towards the central and western regions in multi-stage production, causing China’s overall welfare to increase by 2.71%. This is mainly due to changes in the cost of domestic trade.(2) The deconstruction of the complete spatial trajectory of the value chain shows that NVC plays a leading role in the dual circulation of the value chain, while the eastern region(especially Guangdong, a typical province) plays a key role in linking the NVC circulation. When NVC and GVC circulations are closed respectively, it is observed that there is no localisation trend of self-closure in any provinces or regions.(3) NVC can largely withstand the adverse impacts of external shocks on China’s welfare, and there is still plenty of room for further internal reforms by removing internal trade and migration barriers to improve the division of labour and the benefits of NVC in the future.(4) As multi-stage production can take full advantage of regional comparative advantages, the influence of the migration interaction mechanism induced by changes in trade costs on multi-stage production is less than that on roundabout production.
作者
邵朝对
苏丹妮
Shao Chaodui;Su Danni
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第1期32-62,共31页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273069)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903101)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(63222073)的资助
南开大学百名青年学科带头人培养计划。
关键词
多阶段生产
国内价值链
价值链双循环
移民
贸易福利
multi-stage production
national value chain(NVC)
value chain dual circulation
migration
tradewelfare
