摘要
风化花岗岩边坡位移受多种不确定因素影响,其预测是一个复杂的不确定性问题。以平益高速某风化花岗岩边坡为研究对象,先利用少量位移监测数据建立五种单项预测模型,然后基于集对关系准则定量分析各单项模型预测值与实测值间的集对关系,并通过联系数确定组合权重系数,最终建立了关于边坡位移的组合预测模型,并将预测数据与实测数据进行了对比验证。研究表明,利用集对分析组合理论建立的模型实现了预测信息的优化组合,相对单项模型,组合模型的预测相对误差最大不超过20%,绝对误差平方SSE、标准误差SE等指标偏小,可为边坡动态施工管理提供更加可靠的依据。拓宽了集对分析组合理论的应用范围,也为解决其他类似工程的位移预测问题提供了思路。
The displacement of weathered granite slope is affected by many uncertain factors,resulting in complicated uncertain problem for its prediction.A weathered granite slope in Ping-Yi Expressway was taken as the study object.Based on a small number of monitoring data,five single prediction models were established.Then,the set pair relationship between each single model predicted value and the measured value was quantitatively analyzed based on the set pair relation criterion,and the combination weight coefficient was determined by the relation number.Finally,the combined prediction model of slope displacement was established,and the predicted value was compared with the measured value.The study shows that the optimal combination of prediction information is realized by using the set pair analysis and combination theory.Compared with the single model,the maximum relative error of the combined model is less than 20%,and the absolute error square SSE,standard error SSE as well as other indicators are small,which can provide a more reliable basis for dynamic slope construction management.The application scope of the set pair analysis and combination theory is expanded,and ideas for solving displacement prediction problems of other similar projects are provided.
作者
刘文劼
黄勇军
潘世强
谭鹏
Liu Wenjie;Huang Yongjun;Pan Shiqiang;Tan Peng(Hunan Transportation Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,Hunan,China;HNCEG Communications Construction Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410029,Hunan,China)
出处
《岩土工程技术》
2023年第1期29-34,共6页
Geotechnical Engineering Technique
基金
湖南省交通科技项目“高速公路边坡智能监测技术开发与风险管控云平台应用研究”(201907)。
关键词
边坡
位移监测
集对分析
组合权重系数
相对误差
slope
displacement monitoring
set pair analysis
combined weight coefficient
relative errors
