摘要
本文利用城市层面的数据建立简约式的差分模型,识别出口下降对中国经济增长的影响。为了解决模型中可能存在的内生性问题,本文利用Bartik方法构造工具变量。研究发现,出口下降是中国近年来经济增速下行的一个原因,与其他地区相比,出口下降较多的地区其经济增长率降幅更大。为了捕捉地区间商品贸易和劳动力流动对外部冲击经济效应的影响,本文还建立了一个多区域量化空间均衡模型。结果表明,出口下降对东部地区特别是与国际市场联系紧密的省市如广东、上海、天津、福建、江苏的影响较为明显;若出口下降10%,则全国实际GDP会下降0.17个百分点,福利水平会下降0.15个百分点;提高国内各地区的生产率以及降低地区间的贸易成本可以抵消外部冲击对中国经济的消极影响。
This paper develops a reduced differencial model using city-level data to estimate the impact of export decline on China’s economic growth rate. To address possible endogeneity in the model, instrumental variables are constructed using the Bartik method. It is found that the export decline has been a reason for the decline of China’s economic growth in recent years. Compared with other regions, the economic growth rate of the regions with more export declines has dropped even more. To capture the effects of interregional merchandise trade and labor mobility on the economic effects of external shocks, this paper also develops a structural model based on multi-regional spatial equilibrium. The results show that the impact of export decline is more pronounced in the eastern region, especially in provinces closely connected with the international market such as Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian, and Jiangsu. A 10% decline in exports would reduce the national welfare level by 0.15 percentage points and real GDP by 0.17 percentage points;and increasing productivity across domestic regions and reducing interregional trade costs can offset the negative impact of external shocks on China’s economy.
作者
陈安平
赵曼
刘娜
Chen Anping;Zhao Man;Liu Na(School of Economics,Jinan University)
出处
《经济科学》
北大核心
2023年第1期27-43,共17页
Economic Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济增速下行的区域效应及机制研究”(项目编号:71773036)资助。
关键词
出口下降
经济增速下行
量化空间模型
export decline
economic growth rate slow down
quantitative spatial model
