摘要
在建设“双城经济圈”与中国经济“第四极”的战略背景下,成渝地区迎来新的发展机遇,也将面临城市人口迁徙与集聚带来的挑战。本文基于常住人口数据,通过构建收缩度模型,分析成渝地区人口收缩规模、收缩轨迹,根据“人口-经济”双重特征界定绝对收缩与相对收缩的性质;结合户籍人口数据判定人口净流量,识别人口收缩与流动的交互类型,分析城市人口收缩与潜在收缩的程度;运用面板回归模型探究人口收缩的影响因子,为政府制定并完善高效、精准的区域一体化高质量发展政策提供参考。
While the Chengdu-Chongqing area is welcoming the twin-city economic circle and the newly added fourth"pole"development opportunities,it will also face the challenges brought by urban population migration and agglomeration.Based on the resident population data,this paper analyzes the scale and trajectory of the population shrinkage in Chengdu-Chongqing area through the construction of shrinkage measurement model,and defines the nature of absolute shrinkage and relative shrinkage based on the dual characteristics of population-economy;determines the net population flow based on the registered population data,and identifies the interaction types between population shrinkage and flow to examine the degree of urban population shrinkage and potential shrinkage;the panel regression model is used to explore the factors influencing population decline,which provides decision-making reference for the government to formulate efficient and accurate high-quality development policies for regional integration.
作者
邓佳栩
潘雨红
DENG Jiaxu;PAN Yuhong
出处
《城乡规划》
2022年第6期10-19,共10页
Urban and Rural Planning
关键词
人口收缩
交互类型
影响因素
成渝地区
population shrinkage
interactiontype
influencing factors
Chengdu-Chongqingarea
