摘要
发展"不平衡不充分"是我国现阶段面临的重要社会经济问题。以成渝地区双城经济圈区县城市为样本,结合重心模型、不一致指数及不均衡指数,对人口与经济的非均衡格局演变进行研究。构建空间自回归模型(SAR)和空间误差模型(SEM),基于新结构经济学视角对区域差距影响因素进行定量分析,研究发现:(1)人口与经济重心波动范围较小,重心演变主要以成都、重庆"双核"竞合态势为基准,表现出较强的稳定性;(2)人口与经济不一致指数分布呈"中心-外围"环状格局。以成都、重庆为核心区,不一致指数最低,向外呈现圈层递增态势;(3)随着物质资本、基础设施和第二三产业的发展,区域差距有所缓解;劳动力与第二产业是影响区域差距的主要因素,也是空间溢出效应的主要体现。基于研究结论,提出牢固树立一体化发展理念,缓解行政区经济约束,促进人口与经济流动;发挥中心的城市带动作用,因地制宜制定产业政策,构建以双核为中心的大中小城市协调发展格局的建议。
"Unbalanced and insufficient"development is an important social and economic problem of China at this stage.Taking the county cities of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as samples,combined with the center of gravity method,the inconsistent index and the imbalance index,the evolution of the inequality pattern about population and economy is studied.In addition,based on a systematic perspective,the spatial autoregressive model(SAR)and the spatial error model(SEM)are used to analyze influencing factors about regional gaps.The results are as follows:1)The population and economic center of gravity fluctuate in a small range,and the evolution of the center of gravity is mainly based on the Chengdu-Chongqing"dual-core"competition and cooperation situation,showing strong stability.2)The distribution of the population and economy inconsistency index shows a"center-periphery"ring pattern.With the Chongqing’s main urban areas and Chengdu as the core areas,the inconsistency index is the lowest showing a trend of increasing circles outward.3)With the development of capital,infrastructure,secondary and tertiary industries,the regional gap has weakened;labor and the secondary industry are the main factors of the regional gap and the spatial spillover effects.Finally,it proposes to firmly establish the concept of integrated development,alleviate the constraints of the administrative region economy,promote population and economic flows;besides,make full use of the leading role of central cities,formulate industrial policies according to local conditions,and build a coordinated development pattern of large,medium and small cities centered on dual cores.
作者
冯月
刘志彪
Feng Yue;Liu Zhibiao
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期63-76,共14页
Finance & Economics
关键词
成渝地区双城经济圈
人口与经济
区域差距
空间计量
Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle
Population and Economy
Regional Disparity
Spatial Econometrics
