摘要
不确定性条件下,过度自信形成的认知偏差是影响企业决策的重要非理性因素。先前的行为金融理论研究集中于过度自信引发的负面影响,对积极行为和后果关注不够。基于高阶梯队理论和资源基础观,本文系统分析了CEO过度自信对战略变革的影响和作用机制。研究发现,首先,CEO过度自信对战略变革具有积极的促进作用,表明CEO过度自信具有正面的影响效果。其次,当企业面对较高的内部经营困境(历史经营期望落差和行业期望落差)与外部环境压力(环境不确定性)时,CEO过度自信对战略变革的影响更加显著,表现出“韧性效应”。进一步研究发现,CEO过度自信对战略变革的正面作用部分通过强化企业创业导向来实现,表现出“创造效应”;同时,CEO过度自信对创业导向的提升作用在高环境不确定性、低行业期望落差时更为显著。研究还发现,CEO过度自信能够通过促进战略变革增强对环境的动态适应,进而提升企业的成长性。此外,CEO过度自信对战略变革的提升有一定的滞后性和连续性,但随着时间的推移,影响效果逐渐减弱。以上研究结果揭示了CEO过度自信的潜在阳光面,为企业在充满挫折和压力情境下如何从内部有效驱动战略变革、积极应对困境并促进企业成长,提供了重要的理论和实践启发。
In recent years,uncertain events and unexpected changes in the general environment have been increasing,which have undoubtedly increased the operational pressure on companies,affected the realization of strategic targets,and even jeopardized the function and survival of organizations.In particular,many organizations are caught in operational difficulties and uncertainties due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.However,in the face of adverse circumstances(major unexpected changes,operational difficulties or financial crises),some enterprises are able to quickly get out of the difficulty through their own strategic changes and even gain new opportunities and development,while some are unable to cope with it and gradually decline or even collapse.This reflects that many previous studies have overemphasized the influence of objective organizational conditions,both inside and outside,while not paying sufficient attention to the primary effect of internal organizational change.Indeed,when executives within an organization perceive adversity,whose cognition may generate strong motivation to initiate and achieve change to dynamically adapt to stress or distress.Therefore,executives’cognition and decision-making characteristics are emerging as important cues for strategic change research.Among the cognitive characteristics of executives,CEO overconfidence is a direction that deserves special research.According to behavioral finance research,the cognitive biases resulting from overconfidence are important irrational factors influencing corporate decisions under uncertainty,such as inefficient investment,financial fraud,and merger&acquisition premium.However,most existing studies focus on the“dark side”of overconfidence,which is the negative consequences of overconfidence.Few studies have addressed the positive consequences of overconfidence.In order to alleviate the above research deficiencies,this paper focuses on strategic change activities with high adaptability and growth,and deeply explores the mechanism o
作者
韵江
宁鑫
暴莹
Yun Jiang;Ning Xin;Bao Ying(School of Tourism and Hotel Management,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Business Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《南开管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期180-190,214,I0038,I0039,共14页
Nankai Business Review
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD140)
国家自然科学基金项目(72072024)
东北财经大学工商管理学院研究生科研项目(GSY2021016)资助。
关键词
CEO过度自信
战略变革
经营期望落差
环境不确定性
组织韧性
CEO Overconfidence
Strategic Change
Aspiration Gap
Environmental Uncertainty
Organizational Resilience
