摘要
我国是世界上最大的能源消费和碳排放国家,能源结构“偏煤”、产业结构“偏重”的特点给碳达峰、碳中和(“双碳”)目标实现及能源领域高质量发展构成挑战,因而面向未来的能源转型路径研究较为迫切。本文在梳理我国能源发展现状的基础上,对我国中长期能源需求和转型趋势进行了预测及分析。研究结果表明,2035年我国一次能源需求总量为5.56×10^(9)~5.96×10^(9)tce,单位国内生产总值CO_(2)排放强度较2005年将下降77.6%~81.5%;能源相关CO_(2)排放将在“十五五”时期达峰;能效提高,可再生能源发展,碳捕获、利用与封存技术应用,氢能及可再生燃料替代是降低能源CO_(2)排放的主要技术措施,技术创新是推动重点领域绿色低碳转型的核心驱动力。进一步从推进节能战略,发展可再生能源,加强技术创新,统筹法制、技术和市场等方面提出了发展建议,以期为能源领域高质量发展提供参考。
China is the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter.Its coal-dominated energy structure and heavy industries bring considerable challenges for achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and for realizing high-quality energy development;this necessitates research on energy transition pathways.Herein,the study reviews the current status of China’s energy development and predicts the medium-and long-term energy demand and energy transition trends in the country.Our results indicate that the total primary energy demand of China will reach 5.56×10^(9) to 5.96×10^(9) tons of standard coal in 2035.The CO_(2) emission intensity per unit of GDP in 2035 will decrease by 77.6%‒81.5% compared with that in 2005.Energy-related CO_(2) emissions will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.Improving energy efficiency,expanding renewable energy application,promoting the carbon capture,storage and utilization technology,and developing hydrogen energy and renewable synthetic fuels are the major technical measures for reducing energy-related CO_(2) emissions.Moreover,technological innovation is the core driving force for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of key areas in China.Furthermore,suggestions are proposed from the aspects of energy conservation,renewable energy development,technological innovation,and coordination of the legal system,technologies,and the market.
作者
黄震
谢晓敏
张庭婷
Huang Zhen;Xie Xiaomin;Zhang Tingting(Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《中国工程科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期8-18,共11页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“能源战略(2035)”(2019-ZD-20)。
关键词
碳达峰
碳中和
能源需求
能源转型
carbon peaking
carbon neutrality
energy demand
energy transition
