摘要
新冠疫情对全球的金融市场和经济活动都造成了严重影响,至今,全球疫情仍在持续,且进入常态化阶段。本文通过建立分位数—分位数回归模型(Quantile-on-Quantile Regression),使用2020年1月22日至2021年10月27日的数据,来考察新冠肺炎疫情对全球主要金融市场的影响。结果显示:新冠疫情对道琼斯指数和WTI原油期货价格主要是负面的影响,且疫情初期影响较大,随着时间窗口延长,影响减弱;对比特币价格初期是消极影响,到了后期是积极影响;对黄金则主要是较弱的正面影响。鉴于此,在疫情类突发事件持续期间,投资者应合理配置金融资产,分散化投资,降低风险;金融监管部门应加强金融市场监测,建立预警体系,并出台合理的救助方案。
The impact of the new crown epidemic had a serious impact on the global financial market and economic activities.So far,the global epidemic is still ongoing and has entered a stage of normalization.This paper uses the data from January 22,2020 to October 27,2021 to examine the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on major global financial markets by establishing a quantile-on-quantile regression model(Quantile-on-Quantile Regression).The results show that:the new crown epidemic has a negative impact on the Dow Jones index and WTI crude oil futures prices,and the impact of the epidemic is relatively large in the early stage,and the impact weakens with the extension of the time window;it has a negative impact on the Bitcoin price in the early stage,and a positive impact in the later stage;For gold,it is mainly a weaker positive impact.In view of this,during the continuous period of epidemic-like emergencies,investors should reasonably allocate financial assets,diversify investment,and reduce risks;financial regulatory authorities should strengthen financial market monitoring,establish an early warning system,and introduce reasonable rescue plans.
作者
许昌灵
XU Chang-ling(Chengdu University of Technology,610000,Chengdu,Sichuan,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2022年第11期81-84,共4页
Special Zone Economy
