摘要
城市群一体化深化过程中,如何引导人口布局优化,是推动经济社会高质量发展的重要举措之一。本文基于长三角1990—2017年城市尺度数据,采用双重差分模型,多角度检验一体化的城市人口增长效应,并初步探讨相关驱动机制。结果表明:(1)一体化能够显著促进城市人口更快增长,且城市就业人口规模越大、人口集聚效应越显著。(2)总体效应的显著性,并不能掩盖一体化过程中人口集聚效应的异质性,一方面随着加入协调会时间的推进,不同阶段效应由正转负,另一方面存在不同批次间效应先增长后下降的差异。(3)一体化过程中要素集聚带来的经济发展水平提升,是城市人口更快增长的关键动力,中介效应与调节效应模型验证了这一假设。
Optimizing the population distribution in the process of regional integration,is one of the important measures to promote the high-quality development of economy and society.The Yangtze River Delta Urban Economic Coordination Committee(UECC for short),as the cooperation framework of the Yangtze River Delta,can define the research scope and present the essential characteristic of integration as well.Based on the urban population data of the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2017,this paper uses the DID model to measure the effects of integration on urban population growth from multiple perspectives,and explores the internal mechanisms.The major conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)On the whole,joining the integration process can significantly improve the growth of urban population,the regression results shows that the larger the urban employment is,the more significant the effects of population growth are.(2)The time evolution of population shows that the significance of integration effects turns from positive to negative.And the population growth effects of different batches is manifested the tendency of growing at the first and then declining.(3)Theoretical analysis presents that the agglomeration and dispersion of development factors in the integration process leading to the rapid development of economy,is an important mechanism to the growth of urban population.
作者
马筱倩
孙伟
闫东升
MAXiao-qian;SUNWei;YAN Dong-sheng(Key Laboratory of Watershed Geography,Nanjing Institute of Geography Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Bejing 100049,China;PublicAdministration School,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing211100,China)
出处
《人文地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期141-148,191,共9页
Human Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42101183,41871119)
南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心重大项目(CYD-2020018)。
关键词
人口分布
一体化
效应测度
长三角
population distribution
regional integration
measurement of effects
the Yangtze River Delta
