摘要
双循环新发展格局是新形势下中国参与国际合作和培育竞争新优势的重要举措,但其中又包含怎样的微观机制?本文建立理论模型,并利用2007~2012年中国实施的“家电下乡”财政补贴政策的准“自然实验”作为工具变量,考察“家电下乡”政策所引致的内循环促进外循环的问题。理论分析表明,当对国内销售进行补贴时,企业边际回报增加,国内销售额上涨,使得企业投资生产率提高,从而降低国内销售和出口的边际成本。其结果是,出口因边际成本的降低获得增长。因此,国内销售促进出口增加是由企业内部生产率提高带来的溢出效应。研究发现,“家电下乡”显著促进了国内家电产品销量增加,在此基础上,家电产品内需的增加显著促进了其出口。该结果在不同时间段、增加行业控制变量、不同地区和分省份回归以及不同的倍差估计情形中均表现出很强的稳健性。这些发现表明,家电产品内需对外需具有很强的促进作用,首次为国内外双循环相互促进新发展观中的内循环促进外循环部分提供了微观理论机制和相关实证证据。
The new development pattern of the double circulation is an important measure to cultivate China’s new advantages in international cooperation and competition under the new situation. What are the microscopic mechanisms involred? Based on the background with profound changes, this paper discusses the micro effect and mechanism of mutual promotion of domestic circulation promoting international circulation. In order to find the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the new development pattern. On the whole, the double circulation development pattern largely reflects the perspective of reform, which covers a wide range from commodities to factors. What this paper discusses is actually the relationship between internal and external demand for goods. Although it cannot cover the whole content of double cycle development pattern. But it can serve as a local substitute, or it can represent a narrow two cycle relationship. It can provide some theoretical and policy thinking for the double cycle development pattern. Political economy theory, macroeconomics theory, new trade theory and new economic geography theory all explain the profound theoretical connotation and deep internal logic of double cycle development pattern. Relevant empirical research also provides the basis for the construction of double cycle development pattern. On the basis of previous studies, this study further studies the influence of domestic demand promotion policy on internal and external circulation, and discusses its mechanism in depth. This paper establishes a theoretical model and uses the fiscal subsidy policy of “home appliances to the countryside” implemented by the state from 2007 to 2012 as a quasi “natural experiment” to provide an answer. The model shows that when there is a subsidy to domestic sales, there is a surge in domestic sales because now the marginal return increase. This however creates an incentive for firms to invest in productivity, which lowers the marginal cost of selling both domestically and exporting
作者
林发勤
周默涵
刘梦珣
Lin Faqin;Zhou Mohan;Liu Mengxun(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University;Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy;School of Economics,Zhejiang University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第9期114-133,共20页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“贸易摩擦对金融风险的因果影响、内在机理和防范政策研究”(72073128)、国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“全球背景下优化中国农业补贴促进农业食物系统转型”(72061147002)
国家社科基金重点项目“‘一带一路’农业对外投资风险防范对策研究”(19AZD012)的资助。
关键词
双循环
“家电下乡”
双重差分
相互促进
Double Circulation
“Home Appliances to the Countryside”
Difference-In-Difference
Mutual Promotion
