摘要
为了促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,中央高度重视构建房地产长效机制,并且取得了一定成效,但是部分城市的房价仍然表现出较为明显的上涨或下跌风险,而且既有房地产长效机制所依赖的货币政策和宏观审慎政策等主要政策工具在调控房价过程中很容易陷入困境,可见房地产长效机制仍然存在改进空间。房地产市场难以平稳健康发展很大程度上归咎于经济结构失衡和经济增长动力不足等问题,而既有房地产长效机制对这些问题的关注较少。宏观政策“三策合一”新理论框架为房地产长效机制的构建与完善提供了新思路。一方面,宏观政策“三策合一”有助于更好地优化经济结构,从而减轻经济结构失衡对房地产长效机制的阻碍;另一方面,宏观政策“三策合一”有助于更好地促进长期经济增长,从而减轻增长动力不足对房地产长效机制的阻碍。基于宏观政策“三策合一”新理论框架,应该做好三方面工作来不断完善房地产长效机制。就稳定政策而言,重点是使用宏观审慎政策加强对投机性资金的监管,货币政策应该主要锚定稳增长目标,而不应该再充当房地产长效机制的主要工具。就结构政策而言,重点是优化产业结构和收入分配结构,从而降低地方政府和家庭部门对房地产的依赖。就增长政策而言,重点是提高技术进步速度和资源配置效率以强化实体经济内生增长动力,从而减弱企业部门对房地产的依赖。三类政策还要加强协调配合,形成统一合力,这样才能更好地增进房地产长效机制的效果。
In order to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,the central government attaches great importance to the construction of long-term mechanism of real estate and has got some achievements.However,house prices in some cities still show obvious risks of rising or falling,and the main policy tools of long-term mechanism such as monetary policy and macro prudential policy are easy to fall into difficulties in the process of regulating house prices.It can be seen that there is still room for improvement in the long-term mechanism of real estate.The reason is that the imbalance of economic structure and insufficient driving force of economic growth do harm to the real estate market,while the existing long-term mechanism pays less attention to these problems.The new theoretical framework of“synthesization of three macro policies”provides new ideas for the construction and improvement of the long-term mechanism.On the one hand,“synthesization of three macro policies”helps to better optimize economic structure,so as to reduce the obstacles of economic structure imbalance to the long-term mechanism.On the other hand,“synthesization of three macro policies”helps to better promote long-term economic growth,so as to reduce the obstacles of insufficient growth power to the long-term mechanism.Based on the new theoretical framework of“synthesization of three macro policies”,we should do a good job in three aspects to continuously improve the long-term mechanism.In terms of stability policy,the focus is to use macro prudential policy to strengthen the supervision of speculative funds.Monetary policy should mainly anchor the goal of stable growth,and should no longer serve as the main tool of the long-term mechanism.In terms of structural policy,the focus is to optimize the industrial structure and income distribution structure,so as to reduce the dependence of local governments and household departments on real estate.In terms of growth policy,the focus is to improve the speed of tec
作者
陈小亮
陈彦斌
CHEN Xiao-liang;CHEN Yan-bin(Institute of Economics,CASS,Beijing 100836,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《学习与探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第8期99-112,F0002,192,共16页
Study & Exploration
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“人口老龄化对中国宏观政策有效性的影响:实证研究与模型仿真”(72073141)
国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国特色宏观调控理论研究:规律总结、理论构建与实践应用”(72141306)。
关键词
房地产长效机制
经济增长
结构失衡
宏观政策“三策合一”
Long-Term Mechanism of Real Estate
Economic Growth
Imbalance of Economic Structure
Synthesization of Three Macro Policies
