摘要
理想的宏观经济运行状态应该呈现为产出缺口和通胀缺口等短期指标在合理区间内平稳运行,而且潜在增速相对稳定。近十年来中国经济出现了产出缺口较小而潜在增速快速下调的现象,以逆周期调控为核心的新凯恩斯主义宏观调控主流理论难以适用于此情形。因此,本文提出"潜在增速缺口"概念——潜在产出增速与潜在产出合理增速的差值,试图构建一个新的宏观政策一般性理论框架来分析宏观政策目标体系重构问题。该理论框架的优势在于能够将长期潜在增速与短期产出水平的权衡取舍关系纳入到统一分析框架内。本文得到超越传统宏观调控理论的两个一般性结论。第一,当潜在增速内生决定时,名义刚性会导致潜在增速无效调整,因此需要把潜在增速缺口纳入宏观调控目标体系中。第二,由于存在产出缺口与潜在增速缺口的权衡取舍关系,因此短期总需求管理政策需要对潜在增速缺口作出必要反应。有鉴于此,由于现阶段中国潜在增速处于持续下调状态,宏观调控不宜再以产出缺口为零为核心目标。中国宏观调控可持续3—5年适当增加力度,即让产出缺口保持为正以收窄负向潜在增速缺口,这有助于中国经济走出潜在增速与总需求螺旋式下调的局面,并提高宏观调控效率。
Ideally,the macroeconomic policy is claimed to have a good performance when the output gap and the inflation gap evolve within a narrow range and the potential output growth is relatively stable.Over the last decade,however,China has witnessed a puzzling phenomenon with a relatively small output gap but a rapid decline in potential growth.This leads to a dilemma for macroeconomic policy management.On the one hand,according to the mainstream New Keynesian theory of macroeconomic policy intervention,there is no need for intensive macroeconomic policy intervention since the output gap and the inflation gap are both small.On the other hand,it is undesirable to tolerate the abrupt contraction of both aggregate supply and demand.This paper introduces a new concept—the potential growth gap,which is referred to as the difference between actual growth of potential output and its effective counterpart.This paper develops a new theoretical framework that enables us to study general issues on macroeconomic policy objectives.We not only focus on the short-run policy objectives extensively discussed by the existing literature,such as the output gap and the inflation gap,but also emphasize the relatively long-run policy objectives,such as the potential growth gap.We extend the canonical New Keynesian model embedded with an endogenous growth mechanism triggered by human capital accumulation through learning.This framework challenges the traditional New Keynesian perspective by unifying the trade-off between the long-run potential growth and the short-run output deviation into the same framework.In addition,we provide two methods,namely,the filtering method and the production function method,for estimating the potential growth gap in China and other countries.In line with the existing literature,we define the cycle components over 2-8 years as short-run fluctuations and the components over 8-50 years as medium-run fluctuations.Therefore,the short-run component can be treated as the output gap,while the medium-run component can
作者
陈彦斌
陈伟泽
CHEN Yanbin;CHEN Weize(Institute of China's Economic Reform&Development,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期14-31,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“国内经济政策环境与金融风险防范”(71850003)
面上项目“人口老龄化对中国宏观政策有效性的影响”(72073141)的阶段性成果
关键词
宏观政策目标
货币政策
产出缺口
潜在增速缺口
新凯恩斯主义
Macroeconomic Policy Objectives
Monetary Policy
Output Gap
Potential Growth Gap
New Keynesianism
