摘要
2016年初以来,民间投资增速严重下滑,成为中国经济走势分析中的一个焦点问题。本文首先就民间投资增速本身、民间投资增速与全国投资增速的比较、民间投资占全国投资的比重这三个方面,考察了民间投资增速严重下滑的状况。民间投资增速严重下滑,其原因是多方面的。本文指出,最关键的原因是投资的盈利预期不振、盈利前景迷茫。本文分析了企业盈利预期的四种类型:古典预期、外推预期、适应性预期和理性预期。本文的研究结论是,营造有利于形成企业盈利预期的宏观经济运行环境,是扭转民间投资增速严重下滑的充分必要条件。
Since the beginning of 2016, China＇s private investment growth has fallen sharply, which becomes a focus problem in the analysis of China＇s economic trends. This paper firstly inspects the serious decline in private investment growth from three aspects： private investment growth itself, comparison between private investment growth and total investment growth in fixed assets, the proportion of private investment in the total investment. The reason for private investment growth falling sharply is various. This paper points out that the key reason is pessimistic profit expectation and depressed profit prospects of investment. This paper analyzes the four types of enterprise profit expectations： classical expectation, extrapolative expectation, adaptive expectation , and rational expectation. The conclusion of this paper is that creation of macroeeonomic environment conducive to the formation of enterprise profit expectation is a necessary and sufficient condition to reverse the decline in private investment growth.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第11期5-12,共8页
China Industrial Economics
基金
中国社会科学院创新工程学部委员创新岗位项目“中国经济走势跟踪分析与宏观调控法制化研究”
关键词
民间投资
经济波动
市场预期
宏观调控
private investment
economic fluctuation
market expectation
macroeconomic control
