摘要
以中国重工业城市包头的建筑碳排放核算和预测为研究对象。碳排放增长的主要因素包括工业、交通和建筑,采用能源平衡表的区域宏观建筑能耗计算方法,对内蒙古包头市2002—2020年城区三种建筑类型能源消耗量进行核算,以循环神经网络模型为基础构建LSTM预测模型,并对2021—2030年的包头市建筑碳排放量进行预测。结果表明:2002—2020年间包头市建筑直接碳排放量呈现上升趋势,其中2014年1996.74万吨为最高值,最高值与最低值相差约7.7倍。通过LSTM预测模型可知,居住建筑能耗预测在2021—2030年中,包头市三种建筑的碳排放量总体呈现先高后低的趋势,碳排放总量大小依次为公共建筑>居住建筑>工业建筑。包头市2020年建筑直接碳排放量达到1966.52万吨,同比2005年涨幅约124%。与政府的预期减排目标相悖。LSTM预测2021年建筑直接碳排放为1964.21万吨,符合碳排放反弹的预期。2022年为建筑碳排放峰值,之后逐年下降。因此,包头市积极提出建筑节能减排的策略建议,“十四五”规划中强调以“生态优先、绿色发展”为导向的高质量建筑发展思路,积极完成“碳达峰、碳中和”的宏伟目标。
This paper takes the calculation and prediction of carbon emissions of buildings in heavy industrial cities BaoTou in China as the research object.The main factors for the carbon emission growth include industry,transportation and buildings,and the regional macro-building energy consumption calculation method of the energy balance sheet is adopted to calculate the energy consumption of three types of buildings in the urban area of Baotou City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2002 to 2020.Based on the Recurrent Neural Network(RNN)model,the LSTM prediction model is constructed and the carbon emissions of buildings in Baotou City from 2021 to 2030 are predicted.The results show that the direct carbon emission of buildings in Baotou presents an upward trend from 2002 to 2020,with the highest value of 19.9674 million tons in 2014,and the difference between the highest value and the lowest value is about 7.7 times.According to the LSTM prediction model,it can be seen that among the predicted building energy consumption in the period of 2021-2030,the total carbon emissions of the three kinds of buildings in Baotou will show a high-low trend and the order of total emissions is public buildings,residential buildings and industrial buildings.In 2020,the direct carbon emissions of buildings in Baotou City will reach 19.6652 million tons,an increase of about 124%compared with 2005,contrary to the government’s expected emission reduction targets.According to the LSTM prediction model,the direct carbon emissions of buildings in Baotou City will achieve 19.6421 million tons in 2021,In line with expectations for a rebound in carbon emissions.Building carbon emissions will peak in 2022 and then will decline year by year.Therefore,Baotou City has actively put forward strategic suggestions on energy conservation and emission reduction of buildings,with the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizing the development ideas of high-quality buildings with ecological priority and green development as the orientation,so as to achieve the gran
作者
魏光普
康瑜
范浩文
于晓燕
马明
WEI Guangpu;KANG Yu;FAN Haowen;YU Xiaoyan;MA Ming(School of Architecture,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014010,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2022年第9期43-48,共6页
Ecological Economy
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金“呼包鄂乌城市群能源消耗碳排放差异分析与影响因素研究”(2022LHMS07004)
内蒙古自治区关键技术攻关计划项目基金“菌根真菌+超富集植物+耐性蚯蚓协同修复白云鄂博重金属污染的技术研究与示范”(2020GG0227)
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金“寒旱型稀土矿区受损植物群落引导性恢复研究”(2018LH07002)。
关键词
建筑
碳排放
碳达峰
LSTM模型
预测
architecture
carbon emissions
the carbon content reaches the peak
LSTM model
forecast
