摘要
我国小型水库数量多、运行风险大、病险率高,小型水库安全度汛问题十分突出,每年都有相当数量小型水库出险或垮坝。针对小型水库预报预见期短、预警难度大的特点,基于小型水库监测数据,在实况降雨的基础上,融合气象预报降雨,采用水位-库容-纳雨能力-预报降水“四轴三相”的预警技术来提升小型水库预警能力。应用表明,基于气象水文融合技术的小型水库雨水情信息服务及预警系统,提高了小型水库信息管理效率,强化了水库信息安全管理,有效延长了预警预见期,提升了预报预警能力,对于小型水库防洪度汛管理具有重要的应用价值。
There are the large number of small reservoirs in China,which have major risk of operation with high illconditioned and/or dangerous risk rate.The problem of flood security of small-scale reservoirs is still very prominent.A considerable number of small-scale reservoirs are in danger or collapse every year.In consideration of the characteristics of short forecast period and difficult early warning for small-scale reservoirs,based on the monitoring data of small reservoirs,real-time rainfall and meteorological forecast rainfall,the early-warning technology called“four-axis and three-phase”which can form a relationship between water level,storage capacity,rainfall receiving capacity and forecasted rainfall is adopted to improve the early warning ability of small-scale reservoirs.Practice has proved that:the rainfall information service and early warning system of small reservoirs based on meteorological and hydrological fusion technology can improve the information management efficiency of small reservoirs,strengthen the information security management of small reservoirs,effectively prolong the early warning and forecast period and improve the forecast and early warning ability,which is of great application value for the flood management of small-scale reservoirs.
作者
李京兵
王玉丽
张锦堂
胡余忠
舒雷
刘昌军
任明磊
王刚
陈胜
LI Jingbing;WANG Yuli;ZHANG Jintang;HU Yuzhong;SHU Lei;LIU Changjun;REN Minglei;WANG Gang;CHEN Sheng(Anhui Hydrological Bureau,Hefei 230022;Wote Water Science Co.,Ltd,Hefei 230092;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038)
出处
《中国防汛抗旱》
2022年第6期60-66,共7页
China Flood & Drought Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52009147)。
关键词
小型水库
纳雨能力
气象降雨预报
预警
气象水文融合
small reservoir
rainfall receiving capacity
rainfall and meteorological forecast
early warning
meteorological and hydrological fusion
