摘要
本文基于我国工业行业数据,利用向量自回归与断点回归模型研究了新冠肺炎疫情冲击下货币政策对异质性产业的调控模式。研究结果表明:货币政策对上、下游产业的调控因产业特性的差异而存在明显的非对称性效应,冲击类型差异决定了货币政策产业调控重点不同,货币政策对保就业保民生需求更迫切的下游产业进行了重点调控;疫情期间货币政策对产业链风险的调控力度发生过一次显著转变,下游产业涉及的微观主体量大面广,成为防风险的重点对象;疫情造成外向型产业循环不畅,货币政策果断发力支持国内产业大循环,对本土型产业调控力度明显增强。最后,本文提出在危机救助时货币政策需要做到“救急”与“谋远”相统一、“稳增长”与“防风险”相结合、“畅通国内”与“循环国际”相促进。
Based on the data of my country’s industrial industries, this paper uses vector autoregression and breakpoint regression models to study the regulation model of monetary policy on heterogeneous industries under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The research results show that the monetary policy’s regulation of upstream and downstream industries has obvious asymmetric effects due to the difference in industrial characteristics. The difference in shock types determines the different focus of monetary policy industry regulation. Monetary policy is more urgent for ensuring employment and people’s livelihood. Downstream industries have carried out key adjustments;during the epidemic, monetary policy has undergone a significant change in the control of industrial chain risks. The downstream industries involve a large number of micro entities and have become key targets for risk prevention;the epidemic has caused a poor circulation of export-oriented industries, Monetary policy has made decisive efforts to support the domestic industrial cycle, and the control of local industries has been significantly strengthened. Finally, this article proposes that monetary policy needs to be unified with “emergency rescue” and “seeking a long distance”, “steady growth” and “risk prevention” should be combined, and “unblocked domestic” and “circular international” should be promoted during the crisis relief.
作者
张全兴
张超群
齐结斌
Zhang Quanxing;Zhang Chaoqun;Qi Jiebin(Ningbo Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2022年第1期20-43,共24页
Financial Development Review
关键词
新冠肺炎疫情
产业特性
货币政策
New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic
Industrial Characteristics
Monetary Policy
