摘要
本文采用2002～2012年季度数据考察3个备选的金融宏观中介目标——社会融资规模、人民币贷款和广义货币M2。图形直观分析、脉冲响应分析以及协整关系分析均表明：M2不是一个理想的中介目标；社会融资规模在3个中介目标中表现最好，建议我国以社会融资规模作为金融宏观调控的中介目标；金融宏观调控政策对实体经济和物价指数的影响时滞分别为5个季度和2～3年。政策时滞对制定前瞻性政策具有一定指导意义。
The paper analyzes three optional financial intermediate targets-aggregate financing of the economy, RMB banking loan, and broad money M2, using data from 2002 to June 2012. Three approaches of graph analysis, impulse responses, and co-integretion analysis give rise to the same conclusions. M2 is not a good intermediate target. Aggregate financing of the economy is the best one according to its relationship with both the real economy and the price index in the short and long run. We suggest adopting aggregate financing of the economy as the financial intermediate target in China. The lags of intermediate targets to the real economy and the price index are respectively 5 seasons, and 2 to 3 years. The concrete policy lags could be instructive to making forward-looking policies.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期94-108,共15页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社科研究一般项目"开放经济下中国货币政策规则理论和实证研究"(10YJA790238)
国家社科基金重点项目"宏观审慎政策和货币政策以及相关治理安排"(12AJY011)的资助
关键词
中介目标
融资规模
人民币贷款
广义货币
Intermediate Targets
Aggregate Financing of the Economy l RMB Banking Loan
Broad Money
