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数量型货币政策扩张对三次产业的调控效应研究——基于“新冠”与“非典”疫情时期数据的比较分析 被引量:2

Research on the regulatory effect of quantitative monetary policy expansion on three industries——Comparative analysis based on the data of "COVID-19" and "SARS" epidemic period
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摘要 2020年,新型疫情的暴发是全球最大的黑天鹅事件。本文主要研究“新冠”和“非典”疫情持续期内数量型货币政策扩张刺激对三次产业的调控效应。结果表明:新冠疫情时期,第一产业和第三产业对数量型货币政策的冲击反应强于非典疫情时期,而第二产业则相反;长期看,三次产业对社会融资规模的反应要比M2更强;新冠疫情期间数量型货币政策的长期效应均显著优于短期效应。据此,提出三点政策建议:一是货币当局可以适度提高货币供应量,以提振第一、三产业,但对第二产业需要其他更具针对性的政策予以协同配合;二是应配合其他政策工具以提高对数量型货币政策对第二产业调控的效果;三是政府需要继续促进三次产业数字化转型升级,实现经济高质量发展。 In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic is the largest black swan event in the world. This paper mainly studies the regulatory effect of quantitative monetary policy expansion stimulus on the three industries during the duration of the "COVID-19" and "SARS" epidemic. The results show that the primary and tertiary industries have a stronger response to the impact of quantitative monetary policy than the SARS epidemic, while the secondary industry has the opposite response;In the long run, the response of the three industries to the scale of social financing is stronger than M2;The long-term effect of quantitative monetary policy during the COVID-19 epidemic was significantly better than the short-term effect. Based on this, three policy suggestions are put forward: first, the monetary authorities can moderately increase the money supply to boost the primary and tertiary industries, but for the secondary industry, other more targeted policies are needed to coordinate;Second, we should cooperate with other means of regulation to improve the pertinence of the regulation of the secondary industry of quantitative monetary policy;Third, the government needs to continue to promote the digital transformation and upgrading of three industries to achieve high-quality development.
出处 《价格理论与实践》 北大核心 2022年第9期134-137,206,共5页 Price:Theory & Practice
基金 东北师范大学哲学社会科学校内青年基金团队项目“绿色金融服务国家‘碳达峰’和‘碳中和’战略路径研究”(2021QT002)。
关键词 数量型货币政策 M2 社会融资规模 三次产业 quantitative monetary policy M2 social financing scale tertiary industry
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