摘要
城市群是中国能源消费和二氧化碳(CO_(2))排放的集聚区,系统评估中国典型城市群历史CO_(2)排放特征对提出科学的碳减排策略至关重要。该文以京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝地区为研究对象,基于《IPCC国家温室气体排放清单指南》核算四大城市群2000-2018年能源活动CO_(2)排放量,应用Tapio脱钩模型和第一类迪维西亚指数对数平均分解方法探讨各城市群历史能源活动CO_(2)排放的脱钩效应及其驱动因素。结果显示:(1)2000-2018年间,京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝地区能源活动CO_(2)排放总体趋势均已由“快速增长期”步入“平台波动期”,2018年CO_(2)排放量相比2000年分别增长了3.5、3.0、2.9和2.4倍。(2)2000-2018年四大城市群CO_(2)排放和经济发展均呈现弱脱钩状态,而与常住人口规模表现为扩张负脱钩状态。长三角、珠三角和成渝地区CO_(2)排放与能源消费呈现为增长连接状态,而京津冀地区表现为扩张负脱钩状态。(3)经济总量效应是促进四大城市群产业部门CO_(2)排放增长的主导因素,而产业能耗强度效应是产业部门CO_(2)排放的主要抑制因素。人均能耗强度效应是导致生活部门CO_(2)排放增加的主导因素,而用能结构效应是生活部门CO_(2)排放的主要抑制因素。
City groups are the agglomeration areas of energy consumption and carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions in China.It is essential to systematically evaluate the historical CO_(2)emission characteristics of typical urban agglomerations in China for proposing scientific carbon emission reduction strategies.This study took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Chengdu-Chongqing area as research objects,and calculated the CO_(2)emissions from energy activities in 2000-2018 based on the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Guidelines.Further,the decoupling effect and driving factors of CO_(2)emissions in each city group were explored by applying the Tapio decoupling model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition methods.The results showed that from 2000 to 2018,the trend of CO_(2)emissions from energy activities in the four major city groups has moved from the“rapid growth period”to the“platform fluctuation period”.The CO_(2)emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing area in 2018 increased by 3.5,3.0,2.9 and 2.4 times compared to that in 2000,respectively.The CO_(2)emissions and economic development in the four major city groups showed a weak decoupling in 2000-2018,while an expansionary decoupling was found between CO_(2)emissions and population expansion.The Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,and Chengdu-Chongqing area showed expansionary coupling between CO_(2)emissions and energy consumption,while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed expansionary decoupling.The economic development effect is the leading factor that promotes the growth of CO_(2)emissions in the industrial sectors of the four major city groups,while the industrial energy intensity effect is the main inhibitor of CO_(2)emissions in the industrial sector.The energy intensity effect is the predominant factor that leads to the increase of CO_(2)emissions in the living sector,whereas the energy structure effect is the main inhibitin
作者
段林丰
卢培利
蒲寅羽
胡伟
陈敏
邓迪
李振亮
翟崇治
DUAN Linfeng;LU Peili;PU Yinyu;HU Wei;CHEN Min;DENG Di;LI Zhenliang;ZHAI Chongzhi(State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region's Eco-environment of Ministry of Education,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;Key Laboratory for Urban Atmospheric Environment Integrated Observation&Pollution Prevention and Control of Chongqing,Chongqing Research Academy of Eco-environmental Science,Chongqing 401147,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第11期55-62,共8页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划专项(2018YFC0214005)
中国工程院院地合作项目(2021-XZ-CQ-1)
城市大气环境综合观测与污染防控重庆市重点实验室开放课题(cqhk2021zdsys-kfX001)。
关键词
城市群
碳排放
脱钩效应
因素分解
city groups
carbon emissions
decoupling effect
factor decomposition
