摘要
海岛作为陆海复合生态系统的典型地带,通过科学测度海岛的碳排放强度及其脱钩效应,可以为海岛低碳绿色发展模式确定和实施路径选择提供依据。基于IPCC碳排放核算方法及线性插值法,构建海岛地区碳排放测度模型,以中国12个县级海岛为案例区,测算其2000—2020年的碳排放规模,采用Tapio脱钩模型及莫兰指数空间自相关法揭示其脱钩状态和空间格局演化特征,并运用LMDI分解方法探讨碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:(1)海岛县域碳排放总量与经济发展均呈增长趋势,经济发展与碳排放增长的速率相当;(2)海岛县域碳排放量多种脱钩类型共存的特征突出,弱脱钩成为主导性脱钩状态,低碳经济仍有很大的发展空间;(3)海岛县域脱钩效应存在显著的全局空间正相关性,空间集聚特征显著,崇明区成为典型脱钩优势区,嵊泗县、长岛县脱钩状态欠佳,呈现脱钩不稳定与区域不均衡的状态;(4)碳排放强度、产业结构、人口规模对碳排放具有正效应,而财政政策、经济发展具有负效应,且经济发展效应保持平稳状态。基于海岛县的脱钩态势,提出了通过优化产业结构、加大财政支持等差异化政策措施,助推“双碳”目标。
As a typical zone of land-sea composite ecosystem,the scientific measurement of carbon emission intensity of sea islands and its decoupling effect is of great significance to facilitate the low-carbon and green development of sea islands.On the basis of IPCC carbon emission accounting method and linear interpolation method,the carbon emission measurement model of sea island areas was constructed,and 12 county-level sea islands in China were taken as case areas to measure their carbon emission scale from 2000 to 2020,while the Tapio decoupling model and Moran index spatial autocorrelation method were adopted to uncover their decoupling status and spatial pattern evolution characteristics.The results demonstrated that:①The total carbon emissions and economic development of the 12 island counties in China all exhibited an increasing trend during the study period,with comparable rates of economic development and carbon emissions growth,resulting in outstanding work efficiency of economic development and ecological environmental protection.②The co-existence of multiple decoupling types of carbon emissions in 12 island counties in China stood out as a prominent feature,with weak decoupling emerging as the dominant decoupling state,leaving much room for the development of a low-carbon economy.③The decoupling effect of carbon emissions in 12 island counties in China existed with significant general spatial positive correlation and significant spatial clustering characteristics,with Chongming District emerging as a typical decoupling dominant area,while Shengsi County and Changdao County suffered from poor decoupling status,which exhibited a state of unstable decoupling and regional unevenness.④Carbon emission intensity,industrial structure,and population size had a positive effect on carbon emissions,while fiscal policy and economic development had a negative effect,and the economic development effect remained stable.Based on the decoupling situation of island counties,differentiated policy measures such as optim
作者
狄乾斌
侯智文
陈小龙
DI Qianbin;HOU Zhiwen;CHEN Xiaolong(School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education,Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
2024年第7期1010-1019,共10页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42076222)。
关键词
碳排放
海洋经济增长
脱钩效应
空间分异
海岛县
carbon emission
marine economic growth
decoupling effect
spatial divergence
island county
