摘要
为定量评价三峡水库下游水沙情势变化并分析其影响因素,采用基尼系数分析了宜昌站1952~2016年径流量与输沙量年内分配均匀度,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T、累积距平法确定了水沙年内分配均匀度的变化趋势及其突变年份,进一步将水文要素划分为汛期(6~10月)与非汛期(11月~次年5月),并采用累计量斜率变化率法,定量评估气候因素与人类活动对宜昌站汛期与非汛期径流量、输沙量变化的贡献率;运用河流影响因子法定量评价宜昌水沙情势改变程度。结果表明,三峡水库下游径流量年内分配越来越均匀,输沙量年内分配越来越不均匀;径流量、输沙量年内分配均匀度分别呈显著下降、上升趋势。经年内分配均匀度变异确定汛期、非汛期径流量均在2002年发生突变,汛期、非汛期输沙量均在1978、2002年发生突变;人类活动是三峡水库下游径流量、输沙量年内变化的主要影响因素,气候变化对径流量、输沙量影响较小。2002年后人类活动对三峡水库下游径流量和输沙量的贡献率均超过70%。三峡水库下游汛期径流量、非汛期径流量2002年后影响因子值分别为0.69、0.86,分别达到中度改变及轻度改变;汛期输沙量、非汛期输沙量2002年后影响因子值分别为0.08、0.02,均达到严重改变。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the change of water and sediment regime in the lower reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir and analyze the influencing factors, the Gini coefficient was used to analyze the annual distribution uniformity of runoff and sediment discharge in Yichang Station from 1952 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, sliding T method and cumulative anomaly method were used to determine the change trend and mutation year of annual distribution uniformity of runoff and sediment discharge. Furthermore, the hydrological elements were divided into flood season(June-October) and non-flood season(November-May of the next year), and the contribution rate of climate factors and human activities to the runoff and sediment discharge changes in flood season and non-flood season of Yichang Station was quantitatively evaluated by using the cumulative slope change rate method;The river impact method was used to quantitatively evaluate the change degree of water and sediment regime in Yichang. The results show that the annual distribution of runoff in the downstream of the Three Gorges reservoir is more and more uniform, and the annual distribution of sediment transport is more and more uneven;The annual distribution uniformity of runoff and sediment discharge showed a significant downward and upward trend, respectively. According to the variation of annual distribution uniformity, the runoff in flood season and non-flood season changed abruptly in 2002, and the sediment discharge in flood season and non-flood season changed abruptly in 1978 and 2002. Human activities are the main influencing factors of runoff and sediment discharge in the lower reaches of the Three Gorges reservoir, while climate change has little impact on runoff and sediment discharge. The contribution rate of human activities to the runoff and sediment discharge in the downstream of the Three Gorges reservoir is more than 70%. The runoff in flood season and non-flood season in the downstream of the Three Gorges reservoir are 0.69
作者
王鸿翔
孙龙飞
赵瑞超
郭文献
WANG Hong-xiang;SUN Long-fei;ZHAO Rui-chao;GUO Wen-xian(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2022年第2期27-31,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51679090,51609085,51779094)
智慧水利河南省高校学科创新引智基地(GXJD004)
贵州省水利厅2020年度水利科技项目(KT202008)联合资助。
关键词
水沙情势
均匀度
突变检验
人类活动
贡献率
水文改变度
water and sediment regime
uniformity
mutation test
human activity
contribution rate
hydrological change degree
