摘要
采用长江干流寸滩、宜昌、汉口和大通四个控制站的径流量和输沙量资料,应用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验和有序聚类检验等方法,分析水沙变化趋势及突变特征,运用气候弹性系数法以及累积量斜率变化率法,定量分解气候变化与人类活动对径流泥沙的影响。结果表明:近60年来长江干流径流量年际变化相对平稳,而输沙量年际变化剧烈,四个站的年输沙量均呈现显著减少趋势,大多数站点的年径流量和年输沙量在1968年前后和21世纪初期发生了突变。变异Ⅰ期为1969-2002年,人类活动对四个站的径流量和输沙量变化的贡献率分别为31.98%~70.04%和75.40%~95.33%。变异Ⅱ期为2003-2015年,人类活动引起四个站的径流量和输沙量变化的贡献率分别为59.75%~80.04%和91.94%~99.17%,显示人类活动的作用强度增大。
Long-term flow discharge and sediment load data from four representative hydrological stations at Cuntan,Yichang,Hankou and Datong along the Yangtze River were collected.Trends and abrupt changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test,sliding t-test and sequential cluster test.The method of climate elasticity and the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity were applied to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on flow discharge and sediment load.Results indicated that annual variations of flow discharge were relatively stable.However,inter-annual sediment load exhibited greater variations compared with flow discharge.Annual sediment load showed a significant decreasing trends at all stations.Significant abrupt chan- ges were detected in the time series of flow discharge and sediment load for most hydrological stations,and most of these changes occurred around 1968 and in the early 2000s.In 1969-2002(variation period I ), the relative contribution ratios of human activities to variations in flow discharge and sediment load were from 31.98% to 70.04% and from 75.40% to 95.33%,respectively.In 2003-2015(variation period Ⅱ),the relative contribution ratios of human activities were from 59.75%to 80.04%and from 91.94% to 99.17%, respectively.
作者
彭涛
田慧
秦振雄
王高旭
PENG Tao;TIAN Hui;QIN Zhen-xiong;WANG Gao-xu(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《泥沙研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期54-60,共7页
Journal of Sediment Research
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405603、2017YFC0405606)
水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究(DJ-ZDZX-2016-09)
关键词
水沙变化
气候变化
人类活动
贡献率
长江
variations of flow discharge and sediment load
climate change
human activities
contribution rate
Yangtze River
