摘要
根据南盘江干流控制站江边街水文站和区间20个降水代表站1956—2016年径流和降水资料,分析降水和径流变化特点和径流系列的突变点。根据径流变化趋势特点,将系列划分为1956—1973年、1974—2001年和2002—2016年3个分析期,并以1956—1973年为本底基准期,应用分离评判法,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对南盘江流域径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:①降水是径流的主要来源,多年平均产水系数为0.24;江边街水文站以上流域降水为不显著减少趋势,而径流呈显著减少趋势;②1974—2001年分析期,气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为65.9%和34.1%,2002—2016年分析期分别为82.8%和17.2%,气候变化仍然是影响径流变化的主要因素;③1974—2001年和2002—2016年分析期,径流的年内分配影响主要表现在月径流的均匀化和峰值的坦化现象上,人类活动是月径流影响的主要影响因素。由此可见,气候变化仍然是影响径流变化的主要因素,但人类活动对径流的影响程度有明显的增加趋势。
According to the runoff and precipitation of Jiangbianjie Hydrographic Station and 20 precipitation stations in Nanpan River from 1956 to 2016,this paper analyzes the change characteristics of precipitation and runoff and the change points of runoff series,divides the series into three analysis periods such as 1956—1973,1974—2001 and 2002—2016 on the basis of the change characteristics of runoff,and conducts the quantitative analysis for the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the runoff change of Nanpan River Basin by the separation judgment method,with 1956 to 1973 as the reference period.The results show that:(1)Precipitation is the main source of runoff,and the average water yield coefficient for many years is 0.24.The precipitation atupper reaches of Jiangbianjie Hydrological Station showed a non-significant decrease trend,but the runoff showed an significant decrease trend.(2)From 1974 to 2001,the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change were 65.9%and 34.1%respectively.From 2002 to 2016,those were 82.8%and 17.2%respectively,so the climate change was the main factor affecting runoff change.(3)During the analysis periods from 1974 to 2001 and 2002 to 2016,the annual distribution of runoff is mainly reflected in the homogenization of monthly runoff and the planarization of peak value,and human activities are the main factors affecting monthly runoff.It can be seen that the climate change is still the main contributory factor for runoff change,but the impact of human activities on runoff are increased.
作者
谷桂华
李学辉
余守龙
段路松
GU Guihua;LI Xuehui;YU Shoulong;DUAN Lusong(Yuxi Branch of Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Yuxi 653100,China;Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China;Lincang Branch of Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Lincang 677000,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2020年第2期21-27,共7页
Pearl River
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
径流
贡献率
南盘江
climate change
human activities
runoff
contribution rate
Nanpan River
