摘要
利用1961—2004年新疆53个气象台站逐日平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall法分别对北疆、天山山区和南疆气温、日较差和降水年序列进行了突变分析,同时利用滑动t检验和Yamamoto法对突变点的真伪做了验证.结果表明:1961—2004年北疆、天山山区和南疆年平均最低气温上升速率均明显高于年平均最高气温,年平均日较差均呈显著下降趋势,年降水量均有增加趋势.北疆年均最低气温、年平均日较差及年降水量分别在1988年、1979年和1984年发生了突变;天山山区年均最低气温、年平均日较差及年降水量分别在1985年、1983年和1992年发生了突变;南疆年平均最高气温、年均最低气温及年平均日较差分别在1993年、1991年和1981年发生了突变.20世纪80年代中期以来北疆、天山山区、南疆均进入增温多雨时期.这些结果对进一步研究和预测新疆气候有着重要意义,为研究全国甚至全球气候变化提供重要依据,同时也为决策者提供决策依据.
According to physical conditions and regional environmental characteristics, the Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang is divided into Northern Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains and Southern Xinjiang. Based on the data of daily mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and daily precipitation from 1961 to 2004 observed at 54 meteorological stations in the Xinjiang Region, some abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation have been detected in the three areas by using Mann-Kendall test method. The calculation results are tested by moving t-test technique and Yamamoto method. The research results indicate that the annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature and annual precipitation vary with a positive trend, but the annual mean diurnal temperature range varies with a negative trend at a significant level of 0. 001 in Northern Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains and Southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2004. In the Northern Xinjiang, the annual mean minimum temperature and annual precipitation had abrupt changes from cool to warm and from less to more in 1988 and 1984, respectively. In the Tianshan Mountains, the annual mean minimum temperature and annual precipitation changed abruptly in 1985 and 2000. In the Southern Xinjiang, the annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature and annual precipitation changed abruptly in 1993, 1991 and 1981, respectively. The annual mean daily temperature rang in the Northern Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains and the Southern Xinjiang changed abruptly in 1979, 1983 and 1981, respectively. The climate has become warm and wet all in the Northern Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains and the Southern Xinjiang since the later 1980s.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期351-359,共9页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所绿洲学者计划项目资助
