摘要
当前,中国企业在“一带一路”沿线的投资项目已成为国际合作的亮点之一,但这些投资项目也面临诸多政治风险的挑战。既有研究对“一带一路”政治风险的分类及其生成逻辑分析有所不足。大国博弈、政党政治以及“央地”矛盾等三重政治博弈是影响东道国政府行为选择的重要因素,这三重政治博弈触发了东道国政府的利益和权力运行方式,政府和执政党会以“支持”“背叛”等态度表达对“一带一路”的立场倾向,以期实现国家利益最大化、获取执政合法性、追求或巩固执政地位以及扩大执政权力等目标。本文以马来西亚东海岸铁路计划和森林城市项目为案例,分析了多重政治博弈与“一带一路”投资项目的政治风险生成过程。本文的研究为研判“一带一路”海外投资项目的政治风险提供了参考。
At present,the projects invested by the Chinese companies in the countries under Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)have become one of the highlights of international cooperation,but they are also suffering many political risks,which have been studied by many scholars.There are some inadequacies in the categorization and logical analysis of those political risks with reference to existing research papers.It is pointed out that there are multiple political games influencing the behavior of the host country's government,including the big powers games,party politics,and the relations between central and local government.These triple political games influence the interests and power operation mode of the governing party,who will express their attitudes towards the BRI in the hope of maximizing the national interests,gaining the legitimacy of governance,pursuing or consolidating the ruling position,and expanding the ruling power.The paper takes the Malaysia's East Coast Rail Link(ECRL)Project and Forest City Master Plan as examples to analyze how multiple political games lead to the political risks of BRI investment projects,and provides a reference for judging the political risks of overseas investment projects in BRI countries.
出处
《东南亚纵横》
2021年第3期41-51,共11页
Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies
基金
国家社科基金青年项目《21世纪海上丝绸之路与南海问题交互影响机制研究》(项目编号:17CGJ025)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
“一带一路”
政治风险
政治博弈
马来西亚
Belt and Road Initiative
Political Risks
Political Games
Malaysia
