摘要
目的探索浙江省热带气旋与白纹伊蚊密度和人群登革热发病率的关联性。方法收集浙江省2015~2020年4~11月每日热带气旋数据、登革热发病数据和气象数据及每半月媒介伊蚊监测数据。利用广义相加模型分析热带气旋对白纹伊蚊密度和登革热发病的影响及滞后效应,其中热带气旋对登革热发病的影响进行年龄亚组分析。结果热带气旋可增加浙江省登革热发病风险,在滞后0、2 d时达到峰值,居民发病风险增加0.37倍(RR=1.37, 95%CI:1.06~1.78;RR=1.37, 95%CI:1.09~1.72)。不同年龄人群受到的影响不同,在滞后3、7 d时,45岁以上人群发病风险分别增加0.51倍(RR=1.51,95%CI:1.08~2.13)和0.58倍(RR=1.58,95%CI:1.16~2.16);在滞后5 d时,60岁以上人群发病风险达到最大(RR=1.64, 95%CI:1.12~2.40)。纳入布雷图指数的广义相加模型分析结果显示,热带气旋对登革热发病的影响在浙江省受到热带气旋影响的半月内最大,且45岁以下和60岁以上人群发病风险较高。在受到热带气旋影响的半月内布雷图指数更高,差异具有统计学意义。热带气旋不同累计影响天数的组间布雷图指数差异不具有统计学意义。结论热带气旋能增加人群登革热发病风险,60岁以上和45岁以下人群为高危人群,应采取有效措施加强对脆弱人群的保护,降低登革热发病风险。热带气旋期间蚊媒密度上升,应及时开展蚊媒消杀工作,降低区域内蚊媒密度。
Objective To explore the association between tropical cyclones, density of aedes albopictus, and incidence of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2020. Methods Data of daily tropical cyclones, dengue cases and meteorological factors as well as data of biweekly vector aedes from April to November during 2015-2020 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The impact and lag effect of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue and the density of aedes albopictus were analyzed with generalized additive model(GAM). The association between tropical cyclones and the number of daily and biweekly dengue cases was analyzed with age subgroups. Results Tropical cyclones increased the risk of dengue in Zhejiang Province. The strongest effect appeared at lag 0 and lag 2 days, and the risk of dengue fever increased by 0.37 times(RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.06-1.78;RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.09-1.72). The impacts on different ages groups varied. At the lag 3 and 7 days, the risk of the population under 45 increased by 0.51 times(RR=1.51, 95%CI: 1.08-2.13) and 0.58 times(RR=1.58, 95%CI: 1.16-2.16), respectively. The population aged 60 and over had the highest risk(RR=1.64, 95%CI: 1.12-2.04) at lag 5 days. Analysis results of GAM incorporating Breateau Index(BI) showed that the effect of tropical cyclones on the risk of dengue reached the maximum in the half month when tropical cyclones raged over Zhejiang Province. Meanwhile, the population under 45 and over aged 60 had a higher risk. The BI was higher in the half-month affected by tropical cyclones, and the difference was statistically significant. There was no significant difference in BI between tropical cyclone groups with different influence days. Conclusion Tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province are associated with the increase of dengue cases. The age subgroups over 60 years and below 45 years are high-risk groups, who need special prevention measures. As mosquito density increases during tropical cyclones, mosquito vector elimination should be carried out timely to reduce the mosqu
作者
颜钰
李传玺
刘起勇
马伟
YAN Yu;LI Chuanxi;LIU Qiyong;MA Wei(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《山东大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第12期143-150,共8页
Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(82073615)
传染病预防控制国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2018SKLID302)。
关键词
热带气旋
登革热
布雷图指数
广义相加模型
Tropical cyclone
Dengue
Breteau index
Generalized additive model
