摘要
2021年中国经济整体呈现疫后复苏态势,前三季度GDP两年平均增速达到5.2%,基本实现了“十四五”良好开局。同时,2021年第三季度以来,中国经济增速面临较大的下行压力,基础设施投资疲软和房地产投资增速迅速下滑,成为拖累实体经济复苏的主要因素,消费也有所放缓,消费对经济增长的拉动作用边际减弱。展望2022年,GDP增速将处于4.9%~5.8%的增长区间。实现较为乐观的5.8%的增速预期,有赖于有效防控疫情反弹、化解房地产市场风险、释放市场主体尤其是民营企业活力以及正确认识和把握碳达峰碳中和的短期任务和长期目标。
In 2021,China's economy overally showed a recovery trend,with the average two-year GDP growth rate of 5.2%in the first three quarters.However,since the third quarter in 2021,China's economic growth has been faced with greater downward pressure,with weak infrastructure investment and rapidly declining real estate investment as the main factors dragging down the recovery of the real economy.Consumption has also slowed down,with the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth weakened marginally.GDP growth rate for the year 2022 is forecasted to be in the range of 4.9%to 5.8%,which depends on the effect of preventing the rebound of the epidemic,resolving the risks of the real estate market,releasing the vitality of market entities especially private enterprises,and correctly understanding and implementing the short-term tasks and long-term strategies of carbon emissions controls.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期28-42,共15页
Reform
关键词
宏观经济形势
国际经济形势
经济高质量发展
macroeconomic conditions
international economic conditions
high-quality economic development
