摘要
本文建立了分别包含碳强度目标约束和总量目标约束的多行业一般均衡模型,评估了中国现阶段实施的基于重点行业碳强度减排目标的政策对宏观经济的影响效果,解释了现阶段实施的减排政策产生就业红利,并有利于宏观经济平稳运行的原因。本文结论表明,随着中国碳强度减排任务的不断加重,当前政策的就业红利将不复存在,同时政策机制蕴含的资源错配、各行业边际减排成本不相等的问题则愈加严重,实施碳交易减排政策的时机逐渐成熟,政府应及时推出碳交易政策代替现行的减排政策。
Through establishing a muhi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model which incorporates carbon intensity reduction target constraint and emission caps, this paper evaluates the effect on China＇s macro economy of the current policy about carbon intensity reduction target for enterprises with high energy consumption and explains why the currently-implemented carbon intensity reduction target has been promo- ting employment and the steady development of macro economy. The conclusion of the paper is that as the carbon intensity reduction target increases, the employment dividend brought by the current policy has been disappearing, accompanied with an exacerbation of resource misallocation and an imbalance of marginal costs of emission reduction among sectors. Therefore it is time that the government should promulgate carbon trading policy to replace the current carbon emission reduction policy.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第7期168-192,共25页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71102125)
清华大学绿色经济与可持续发展研究中心的资助
关键词
碳强度约束
总量约束
政策减排效应
劳动就业
carbon intensity constraint, emission caps, effect of emission reduction policy, labor employment
