摘要
中国政府承诺到2030年单位国内生产总值的CO_2排放比2005年下降60%~65%,基于碳强度约束的行政型减排措施是中国应对气候变化的主要手段之一,分析碳强度约束对城乡居民福利水平的影响,是碳减排机制设计的重要内容。本文构建31个部门的经济-能源-碳排放动态CGE模型,模拟2012—2030年在碳强度约束和非化石能源比重提高的情景下,城乡居民福利水平、消费结构以及CO_2排放等指标相比基准情景的变化情况。结果表明:(1)城乡居民收入无显著变化,生活总消费略有下降。其中,农村居民生活总消费的降幅超过城镇居民。(2)居民能源消费和CO_2排放大幅下降,农村居民的降幅超过城镇居民。(3)居民对煤炭、成品油和天然气的消费大幅降低,电力消费显著上升,部分资本密集型商品的消费小幅增加。其中,城乡居民的煤炭消费降幅最大,农村居民对成品油和天然气的消费降幅远超城镇居民,对电力、专用设备、通用设备、金属制品等商品的消费涨幅超过城镇居民。(4)碳强度约束使城乡居民福利小幅下降。其中,农村居民的福利等价变化降幅超过城镇居民。根据实证结果,得出以下结论:一是碳强度约束对居民生活减排起到积极作用;二是这一政策使城乡居民福利小幅下降,但不会对居民生活产生强烈冲击;三是对农村居民能源消费的负向影响超过城镇居民。总体而言,政府在碳强度约束政策的基础上,首先,应增加对农村居民的转移支付,提高农村居民收入增幅,缩小城乡居民收入差距;其次,增加农村清洁能源的供给;再次,提高对农村居民使用清洁能源的补贴力度,从而降低应对气候变化政策对农村居民的负向影响。
Chinese government pledged to cut its C〇2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60V to 65 V from 2005 levels by 2030.Administrative emission reduction measures based on carbon intensity restriction are one of China ’ smajor meansof coping with climate change. Analyzing the impact of carbon intensity restriction on urban and rural residents ’ welfare is a significant content of the carbon emission reduction mechanism design. This paper builds a dynamic CGE model of economy-energy-carlDon emission based on 31 sectors to simulate changes in urban and rural residents ’ welfare and consumption structure as well as C〇2 emission under the context of carbonintensity restriction and increased share of non-fossil energy from 2012 to 2030. Results are listed as follows ① There ’ s no obviouschange in urban and rural residents, income and the general living consumption slightly drops. The consumption is greater tlian that of urban residents. ② Residents ’ energy consumption and Cwith greater decrease on the part of rural residents.③ Asharp decline is shown in the consumption of coal, an obvious increase can be witnessed in electric power consumption and the consumption of some capital-intensive sectors goes througha minor increase. The coal consumption of urban and rural residents are significantly increased. The decline oil and natural gas of rural residents far exceeds that of urban residents. Besides, their increaspecial purpose machinery, general purpose machinery and metal products surpasses that of urban residents. ④ Carbon intensity restriction brings about a slight drop in urban and rural residents ’ welfare but it ’ s a small range. The fall in the Hicks ’ equivalent variation is greater than that of urban residents. The following conclusions are reached according to intensity restriction plays a positive role in household carbon emission reduction; second,the policy makes urban and rural residents,welfare decline but it won,t have strong impact on r
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期94-105,共12页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目"陕西省‘十三五’应对气候变化规划思路研究"(批准号:2014017)
国家自然科学基金面上项目"资源枯竭型企业跨区转移行为的溢出效应与胁迫效应研究"(批准号:71573110)
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目"绿色低碳经济政策的宏观效应研究"(批准号:2016SJD790026)
关键词
碳强度约束
城乡居民
消费结构
居民福利
动态CGE模型
carbon intensity constraint
urban and rural residents
consumption structure
welfare of residents
dynamic CGE model
