摘要
为准确预测邯郸市工业需水量,结合残差修正GM(1,1)模型与等维递补原理,建立等维递补残差修正GM(1,1)模型,对邯郸市各区域2025年工业需水量进行预测。在此基础上,依据河北省水利厅下发的2025年邯郸市万元工业增加值用水量指标计算工业节水修正值,并用以修正预测值。结果表明,等维递补残差修正GM(1,1)模型较GM(1,1)模型与残差修正GM(1,1)模型而言,相对误差分别减少了33.9%与12.5%,将节水修正值用以修正模型预测结果,相对误差进一步减少4.0%,更加适用于邯郸市工业需水量预测。结合模型求解结果与节水修正值,得2025年邯郸市工业需水量为34799.90×10^(4) m ^(3),为邯郸市工业的可持续发展提供参考,也为其他区域需水量预测提供借鉴意义。
In order to accurately predict the industrial water demand of Handan City,based on the residual error correction GM(1,1)model and the equivalent dimensions addition,this paper proposes an equal-dimension-addition residual error correction GM(1,1)model to effectively predict the industrial water demand of each region in Handan city in 2025,as well as based on this,calculates the industrial water-saving correction value in 2025 according to the indicators of water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value-added by industry in Handan city issued by the Department of Water Resources of Hebei Province,and apply it to correct the predictive value.The results show that compared with the GM(1,1)model and residual error correction GM(1,1)model,the relative error of equal-dimension-addition residual error correction GM(1,1)model decreases by 33.9%and 12.5%respectively,and the relative error further reduces by 4.0%after the water saving correction value is used to correct the prediction results of the model,because of which it can be concluded that equal-dimension-addition residual error correction GM(1,1)model is more applicable for the prediction of industrial water demand in Handan City.Through the analysis of the calculation result from the equal-dimension-addition residual error correction GM(1,1)model and water saving correction value,the industrial water demand of Handan city in 2025 will be 34,799.90×10^(4) m ^(3),which would be helpful for the decision-making of the industrial sustainable development in Handan and also the prediction of water demand in other regions.
作者
夏锋
索梅芹
王一杰
王丽丽
XIA Feng;SUO Meiqin;WANG Yijie;WANG Lili(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2021年第11期77-82,共6页
Pearl River
基金
河北省自然科学基金面上项目(D2019402235)
河北工程大学科研项目(201901400356)。
关键词
残差修正GM(1
1)模型
等维递补
节水修正值
工业需水量预测
residual error correction GM(1,1)model
equivalent dimensions addition
water saving correction value
prediction of industrial water demand
