摘要
为促进城市旅游业和生态环境的持续健康发展,以六盘水市为研究对象,建立旅游化和生态环境的指标体系,采用主成分分析法计算各指标的权重。运用耦合模型分析2014—2021年的耦合度;利用灰色预测模型分析六盘水市2022—2029年的旅游与生态发展趋势。结果表明:第一,2014—2021年六盘水市旅游化与生态环境耦合度在0.4845~0.4984之间波动变化,说明处于低度耦合阶段;第二,六盘水市2014—2021年旅游化水平指数和生态环境质量水平协调度值在0.3191~0.3785之间变化,处于低度协调阶段;第三,六盘水市2022—2029年耦合度逐渐上升,且在2029年耦合度值为0.5536,达到中度耦合阶段。随着六盘水市旅游化与生态环境之间关系的逐步改善,最终能够实现六盘水市旅游与生态的可持续发展。
In order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of urban tourism and the ecological environment,this paper takes Liupanshui city as the research object,establishes the index system of tourismization and ecological environment,and utilizes the principal component analysis method to calculate the weight of each index.The coupling model is employed to analyze the coupling degree from 2014 to 2021.The grey prediction model is adopted to analyze the tourism and ecological environment development trend of Liupanshui city from 2022 to 2029.The result shows that:first,the coupling degree of tourismization and ecological environment in Liupanshui city fluctuates between 0.4845 and 0.4984 from 2014 to 2021,indicating that the coupling degree is in a low stage;second,the coordination degree between the tourismization level index and the eco-environmental quality level of Liupanshui city from 2014 to 2021 varies from 0.3191 to 0.3785,which is in a low coordination stage.;third,the coupling degree of Liupanshui city increases gradually from 2022 to 2029,and the coupling degree value is 0.5536 in 2029,reaching the moderate coupling stage.With the gradual improvement of the relationship between tourismization and the ecological environment in Liupanshui,the sustainable development of tourism and ecology in Liupanshui can be realized eventually.
作者
秦趣
胡泽黎
黄艳
Qin Qu;Hu Zheli;Huang Yan(School of Economics and Management,Liupanshui Normal University,Liupanshui 553004;The Culture and Tourism Development Research Center of Liupanshui,Liupanshui 553004,China)
出处
《六盘水师范学院学报》
2022年第5期25-34,共10页
Journal of Liupanshui Normal University
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“乡村旅游与生态环境保护非协调性耦合识别及其良性互动机制研究”(19BJY213)
关键词
旅游化
生态环境
耦合模型
灰色预测模型
六盘水市
tourismization
ecological environment
coupling model
grey prediction model
Liupanshui city
