摘要
目的通过构建不等权组合模型预测我国2020年至2035年医师需求数量,为卫生人力资源的规划提供科学参考。方法采用趋势外推法、人力/人口比值法、卫生服务需求法对我国2020年至2035年医师需求进行初步预测,进而采用德尔菲法对这3种方法的结果进行不等权组合,计算得出2020年至2035年我国医师需求。结果通过不等权组合模型预测,2020年至2035年我国医师需求逐步增长,从2.64人/千人口增至3.67人/千人口,但增长幅度逐步放缓。结论运用不等权组合预测模型,综合服务需求和历史现状,测算方法科学可行。建议参照医师需求的同时,综合考虑影响医师供需平衡的因素进行医学教育及医师分科相关的政策制定。
Objective To measure the demand of physicians in 2020-2035 period by constructing an unequal weight combination forecasting model,and to provide scientific reference for health manpower planning.Methods This study called into play the trend extrapolation method,human/population ratio method and health service demand method to preliminarily predict the demand of physicians in 2020-2035,followed by Delphi method to carry out unequal weight combination of the results of these three methods.Hence the physicians demand in 2020-2035 in China was calculated.Results Based on the unequal weight combination forecasting model,the physicians demand of the period in China was estimated to increase from 2.64 people/1000 population to 3.67 people/1000 population,and the physicians demand to gradually increase at a growth rate in gradual slowdown.Conclusions This research used the unequal weight combination forecast model,based on the service demand and the historical situation.It is suggested that relevant policies of medical education and specialists division be made based on both the demand and the factors affecting the supply and demand balance of physicians.
作者
姚德明
党媛
武宁
Yao Deming;Dang Yuan;Wu Ning(Beijing Hospital,National Center of Gerontology,Institute of Geriatrics Medicine,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100730,China;School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China;China National Health Development Research Center,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《中华医院管理杂志》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第7期570-574,共5页
Chinese Journal of Hospital Administration
关键词
卫生人力
医师需求
需求测算
组合预测模型法
Health manpower
Physician demand
Demand measurement
Combined forecasting model