摘要
[目的]预测广西卫生资源需求,为卫生资源的合理配置提供参考依据。[方法]运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测广西卫生资源需求。[结果]2016-2020年卫生资源数的预测值看,广西卫生资源数呈平稳上升趋势,到2020年卫生机构数、床位数分别达到12,694个、336,463张,卫生技术人员数将达到414,800人。其中,执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数分别到达到121,058人、187,453人,每千常住人口卫生机构数、床位数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数分别为0.25个、6.69张、8.25人、2.41人、3.73人。[结论]GM(1,1)模型适用于卫生资源需求量的预测;广西应当加大对执业(助理)医师的培养力度,适当增加卫生机构数,积极引进卫生技术人员。
Objective To forecast health resources demand in Guangxi so as to provide references basis fi）r rational allocation of health resources. Methods Gray Systmn GM（ 1, 1 ） model was used to predict the demand of health resources in Guangxi. Results From 2016 to 2020, the predicted value of health resources in Guangxi, it showed smooth and steady rising trend. In 2020, the number of health institutions and beds will rise to 126 94 and 336 463 respectively, the number of health technicians will rise to 414 800, the number of practicing physicians and registered nurses will rise to 121 058, 187 453 respectively. The number of health institutions, beds, health technicians, practicing physicians and registered nurses per thousand population will be 0. 25, 6. 69, 8.25, 2.41 and 3.73 respectively. Conclusions CM（ 1,1 ） model is suitable to forecast the demand of health resources. Guangxi government shouht strengthen the cultivation of practicing physicians, and increase the number of heahh institutions appropriately, and introduce health technical personnel actively.
作者
孙健
王前强
SUN Jian WANG Qian- qiang(Humanities and Social Science School of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning Guangxi, 530021 , China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2017年第7期25-28,共4页
Soft Science of Health
基金
2016年广西医科大学人文社会科学研究基地研究生创新课题:新医改背景下广西卫生资源配置公平性与利用效率评价指标体系的构建及实证研究(2016RWY06)
2017年广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSW2017114)
2016年度广西科协资助高校青年教师及研究生专项调研课题(桂科协[2016]Z-46)
关键词
卫生资源
需求预测
GM(1
1)模型
广西壮族自治区
health resources, demand forecasting, GM（ 1,1 ） model, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
