摘要
目的探讨灰色模型在间日疟流行趋势预测中的应用价值。方法建立GM(1,1)模型。依据2000～2004年江苏省本地人口和外地流动人口间日疟发病人数建立疟疾病例预测模型,并对2005年江苏省疟疾发病情况进行预测。结果江苏省本地人口和外地流动人口间日疟病例预测数学模型分别为^Y(t)=-3559.29e-0.3541(t-1)+4460.289和^Y(t)=-333.48e0.2277(t-1)-257.483。经拟合检验,模型拟合度好(C本地=0.270,P>0.95;C外地=0.155,P>0.95)。利用本模型对2005年江苏省间日疟发病人数进行外推,估计发病人数本地人口为215例,流动人口为210例。结论建立的疟疾病例预测数学模型拟合度好,用该模型预测2005年江苏省本地间日疟病例数总体呈下降趋势,而流动人口间日疟发病人数呈上升态势。
Objective To explore the application value of grey model in the forecasting of epidemic of vivax malaria in Jiangsu Province in 2005. Methods According to the vivax malaria data of local and import patients in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2004, the trend of the incidence of vivax malaria in 2005 was forecasted. Results The mathematical model was established as (t)= -3 559.29 e -0.3541(t-1) +4 460.289 and [AKY^](t)=-333.48e 0.2277(t-1) -257.483 and the estimation test results of models are C local = 0.270 , P >0.95; C mobile =0.155, P >0.95. Extrapolating the number of vivax malaria in Jiangsu Province in 2005, it is estimated that 215 and 210 patients are in local population and mobile population respectively. Conclusion The grey model is fit for malara data forecast. In Jiangsu Province, the trend of the incidence of vivax malaria is decreasing in local population and increasing in mobile population in 2005.
出处
《中国寄生虫病防治杂志》
CSCD
2005年第3期178-179,共2页
Chinese Journal of Parasitic Disease Control
关键词
江苏省
灰色模型
疟疾
预测
Grey model
Jiangsu Province
malaria
forecast
