摘要
伊斯兰世界与西方的差异和矛盾一直是政治学研究的一个热点。伊斯兰信仰究竟与伊斯兰国家民众对内政外交的认知和偏好有着怎样的联系?国际学界围绕"文明的冲突"和"融合—温和化"等理论展开了多轮论争,然而基于微观数据所进行的定量研究却相对有限。本文利用"阿拉伯晴雨表"在阿拉伯国家的大规模民意调查数据,将伊斯兰信仰分解为"个人宗教虔诚度"和"政治伊斯兰倾向"两个不同维度,以考察其与穆斯林民众的民主偏好及涉外态度之间的关系。通过累积Logit模型回归,本文发现个人的宗教虔诚程度与民主偏好无显著关系,但政治伊斯兰倾向总体上与对民主概念的支持度有着明显的负相关关系。在对外关系方面,回归结果表明,个人的宗教虔诚与政治伊斯兰倾向均与反西方情绪呈正相关,对以穆斯林为主体的其他中东国家态度则更为积极但存在类型差异。同时,本文探讨了阿拉伯民众对"民主"的具体认知与目前西方政治学主流定义之间的出入,验证了穆斯林对伊斯兰主义组织信任度与其民主偏好相融合的可能性。这对于我们理解和研判不同宗教在"百年未有之大变局"中的地位和作用,更加全面地审视和反思以西方经验为基础的民主政治都具有一定意义。
Centered around theories such as the "Clash of Civilizations"and "Inclusion-Moderation",debates regarding the influence of Islam on politics have continued for decades.Scholars have been trying to explore whether Islam is compatible with liberal democratic systems at home and international order abroad.Since the Arab Spring,the unsolved puzzle and new situations have called for more empirical evidences and research.This article utilizes the survey data from the Arab Barometer Wave V to investigate how Islam influences Arab Muslims’ attitudes toward democracy and their perception of relations with various foreign powers.The broad and complex concept of Islam is decomposed into two different dimensions:religiosity of personal life and inclination for political Islam.Using cumulative logistic model,we find people in favor of political Islam are significantly less likely to support the idea of democracy,while there is no evidence indicating significant negative effect of personal religiosity on the preference of democracy.Moreover,in countries with more stable political system after relatively peaceful democratization,the positive attitude toward Islamist movements is significantly associated with democratic preference.Besides,this research reveals that many Arab Muslims may define democracy in multiple terms different from the mainstream political discourse in the West.As for international politics,evidence indicates that both personal religiosity and political Islam inclination are associated with anti-western and even anti-foreign sentiments as well as different levels of affinity for Muslim-majority states in the Middle East.Such findings are conducive to reflecting on not only the developments of politics and political theories in the non-Western world but also the contemporary role of religions in the 21 st Century.
作者
佘纲正
李修宇
SHE Gangzheng;LI Xiuyu
出处
《外交评论（外交学院学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期57-87,I0003,共32页
Foreign Affairs Review
