摘要
文章以湖北省为例,选取1991—2019年的数据,首先对湖北省城乡居民收入差距的现状进行了分析,然后对数据进行平稳性检验和处理后,分别对城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入建立合适的ARIMA模型拟合其发展趋势,得出模型预测效果较好的结论。最后利用所建立的模型对2020—2022年湖北省城乡居民收入差距进行了短期预测,以期为有关部门制定决策提供一定的依据。
Taking Hubei Province as an example,this paper selects the data from 1991 to 2019.It is firstly analyzed the current situation of the income gap between urban and rural residents in Hubei Province,and then the data are tested and processed.Then,it establishes an appropriate ARIMA Model for the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of rural residents to fit their development trend.It is concluded that the model has a good prediction effect.Finally,the model is used to predict the income gap between urban and rural residents in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022 to provide some basis for relevant departments to make decisions.
作者
吴琴
WU Qin(Hubei Minzu University,Enshi 445000,China)
出处
《哈尔滨学院学报》
2021年第7期31-34,共4页
Journal of Harbin University
关键词
ARIMA模型
城乡居民
收入差距
湖北省
ARIMA Model
urban and rural residents
the income gap
Hubei Province
